Total retail sales in India will grow from US$ 395.96 billion in 2011 to US$ 785.12 billion by 2015, according to the Business Monitor International (BMI) India Retail Report for the second-quarter of 2011. Strong underlying economic growth, population expansion, the increasing wealth of individuals and the rapid construction of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth. With the expanding middle and upper class consumer base, there will also be opportunities in India's tier II and III cities.
Mass grocery retail (MGR) sales in India are expected to undergo tremendous growth over the forecast period. BMI predicts that sales through MGR outlets will increase by 218 per cent to reach US$ 27.67 billion by 2015.
BMI forecasts consumer electronic sales at US$ 29.14 billion in 2011, with over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales at US$ 2.30 billion. The former sub-sector is expected to show growth of 66.8 per cent between 2011 and 2015, reaching US$ 48.61 billion, with projected double-digit growth of key products such as notebooks, mobile handsets and TVs. OTC pharmaceuticals, meanwhile, should increase more, by 106.9 per cent throughout the forecast period, to reach US$ 4.75 billion.
China and India are predicted to account for more than 91 per cent of regional retail sales in 2011, and by 2015 their share of the regional market is expected to be at least 93 per cent. BMI forecasted growth in regional retail sales at 75.2 per cent for 2011, an annual average of 14.9 per cent.
Organised retail in India is expected to increase from 5 per cent of the total market in 2008 to 14-18 per cent and reach US$ 450 billion by 2015, according to a McKinsey & Company report titled 'The Great Indian Bazaar: Organised Retail Comes of Age in India'.
Furthermore, according to a report titled 'India Organised Retail Market 2010', published by Knight Frank India, during 2010-12 around 55 million square feet (sq ft) of retail space will be ready in Mumbai, national capital region (NCR), Bengaluru, Kolkata, Chennai, Hyderabad and Pune. Besides, between 2010 and 2012, the organised retail real estate stock will grow from the existing 41 million sq ft to 95 million sq ft.
Driven by the growth of organised retail coupled with changing consumer habits, food retail sector in India is set to be more than double to US$ 150 billion by 2025, according to a report by KPMG.
According to the report ‘Strong and Steady 2011’ released by global consultancy and research firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), India's retail sector, which is currently estimated at about US$ 500 billion, is expected to grow to about US$ 900 billion by 2014.
India has also been ranked as the third most attractive nation for retail investment among 30 emerging markets by the US-based global management consulting firm, A T Kearney in its 9th annual Global Retail Development Index (GRDI) 2010. Within Asia, India is expected to account for the third largest share at US$ 2.7 billion in 2015, according to a report released by research firm Ovum on January 12, 2011.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows between April 2000 and January 2011, in single-brand retail trading, stood at US$ 128.34 million, according to the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP).