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Indian Economy Overview

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Indian Economy Overview

March, 2011

The overall growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost at constant prices, as per Advance Estimates, was 8.6 per cent in 2010-11 representing an increase from the revised growth of 8.0 per cent during 2009-10, according to the Advance Estimate (AE) of Central Statistics Office (CSO).

At disaggregated level, this (AE 2010-11) comprises an increase of 5.4 per cent in agriculture and allied activities, a growth of 8.1 per cent in industry and 9.6 per cent in services as compared to a growth of 0.4 per cent, 8.0 per cent and 10.1 per cent respectively during 2009-10. Real GDP grew by 8.2 per cent in the 3rd quarter of 2010-11 following identical growth of 8.9 per cent in the first two.

The index for six core industries (comprising crude oil, petroleum refinery products, coal, electricity, cement and finished carbon steel) with a weight of 26.68 per cent in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 5.6 per cent during April-January 2010-11, as compared to growth rate of 5.5 per cent achieved during the corresponding period in 2009-10.

The Economic Scenario

India is today rated as one of the most attractive investment destinations across the globe. The UNCTAD World Investment Report (WIR) 2010, in its analysis of the global trends and sustained growth of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows, has reported India to be the second most attractive location for FDI for 2010-2012.

The result of the government initiatives and liberalisation measures undertaken have resulted in tremendous response and growth in the FDI equity inflows to India since 2003-04, which have increased nearly thirteen-fold until the last financial year (i.e. 2009-10). While India was ranked 32nd in the world on FDI inflows in 2001 (as per UNCTAD data), its ranking improved to the 9th position in 2009. India’s ranking, in terms of FDI inflows among developing countries (as per UNCTAD data), has jumped from 13th in 2005 to 4th (in 2009). Its share of world FDI inflows has jumped from 0.78 per cent in 2005 to 3.11 per cent in 2009.

Moreover, India attracted FDI equity inflows of US$ 1,042 million in January 2011. The cumulative amount of FDI equity inflows from April 2000 to January 2011 stood at US$ 189.8 billion, according to the data released by the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP). The humungous increase in investment mirrors the foreign investors’ faith in the Indian markets.

The services sector comprising financial and non-financial services attracted 21 per cent of the total FDI equity inflow into India worth US$ 2,987 million during April-January 2011, while telecommunications including radio paging, cellular mobile and basic telephone services attracted the second largest amount of FDI worth US$ 1,332 million during the same period. Automobile industry was the third highest sector attracting FDI worth US$ 1,191 million followed by Housing and Real Estate sector which garnered US$ 1,048 million during the financial year April-January 2011.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have invested US$ 1.15 billion in equities and bonds, taking total net inflows in 2011 so far to US$ 1.61 billion, as per the data available with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI).

As on March 18, 2011, India's foreign exchange reserves totalled US$ 303.51 billion, according to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Weekly Statistical Supplement.

India's exports during January 2011 were valued at US$ 20.6 billion which was 32.4 per cent higher in Dollar terms and 30.8 per cent higher in Rupee terms than the level of US$ 15.6 billion during January 2010. Cumulative value of exports for the period April-January 2010 -11 was US$ 184.6 billion as against US$142.7 billion registering a growth of 29.3 per cent in Dollar terms and 23.8 per cent in Rupee terms over the same period last year.

Foreign Tourist Arrivals (FTAs) during the month of February 2011 was 6.92 lakh as compared to FTAs of 6.01 lakh during the month of February 2010 and 4.90 lakh in February 2009. There has been a growth of 15.1 per cent in February 2011 over February 2010. The 15.1 per cent growth rate in FTAs in February 2011 was substantially higher than 9.7 per cent growth rate observed in January 2011. FTAs during the period January-February 2011 were 12.30 lakh with a growth of 12.7 per cent as compared to the FTAs of 10.92 lakh with a growth of 12.4 per cent during January-February 2010 over the corresponding period of 2009.

India's GSM subscriber base grew by 2.72 per cent in February with the addition of 14.7 million mobile phone users. The total number of GSM subscribers in the country crossed 555 million as against 540.37 million in January, according to the data released by Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI).

Further, the number of 3G subscriber connections in India is forecast to reach 400 million within four years, representing almost 30 per cent of the country's total mobile connections, according to a Wireless Intelligence study -- India 3G Rollout (forecasts and market shares 2011 - 2015). 3G connections are set to grow three-fold between 2011 and 2015 as operators ramp-up rollout of new 3G networks, according to the study.

The average assets under management of the mutual fund industry stood at Rs 6,780.6 billion for the quarter October to December 2010, according to the data released by Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI).

The Indian IT-BPO sector continues to be the fastest growing segment of the industry and is estimated to have aggregated revenues of US$ 88.1 billion in FY2011, with the IT software and services industry accounting for US$76.1 billion of revenues, according to NASSCOM’s Strategic Review 2011.

Passenger Vehicles segment grew at 30.97 per cent during April-January 2011 over same period last year. Passenger Cars grew by 31.31 per cent, Utility Vehicles grew by 20.59 per cent and Multi-Purpose Vehicles grew by 46.53 per cent in this period. January 2011 figures for domestic sales of Passenger Cars show a growth of 26.28 per cent over the same month last year. Total passenger vehicle sales figures for January 2011 compared to January 2010 show that growth stands at 24.68 per cent. During April-January 2011, overall automobile exports registered a growth rate of 30.96 per cent, according to Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM).

  • Jewellery shipments were worth US$ 30.6 billion in April 2010-January 2011, registering a rise of 38.81 per cent as compared to US$ 22 billion in the corresponding period of 2009-10, according to the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council
  • Passengers carried by domestic airlines during Jan-Feb 2011 were 95.11 lakhs as against 79.51 lakhs during the corresponding period of previous year, thereby registering agrowth of19.6 per cent, according to the Ministry of Civil Aviation.
  • The HSBC Markit Business Activity Index, which measures business activity among Indian services companies, based on a survey of 400 firms, rose to 60.2 in February 2011 from 58.1 in January 2011.