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Indian Economy Overview

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Indian Economy Overview

August, 2011

The overall growth of gross domestic product (GDP) at factor cost at constant prices, as per Advance Estimates was 8.5 per cent in 2010-11, representing an increase from the revised growth of 8 per cent during 2009-10, according to the monthly economic report released for the month of July 2011 by the Ministry of Finance. The index of industrial production (IIP) rose to 8.8 per cent in June 2011, year-on-year (y-o-y), on back of manufacturing and within that, the capital goods sub-segment. During April-June 2011-12, the IIP growth was registered at 6.8 per cent as compared to 9.6 per cent during 2010-11.

The eight core infrastructure industries grew by 5.2 per cent in June 2011 as compared to the growth of 4.4 per cent in June 2010. In addition, exports in terms of US dollar, increased by 46.4 per cent during June 2011. On the back of such facts, India’s GDP is projected to continue to grow at a brisk pace of 8.8 per cent in 2011-12.

In addition, India has entered the club of top 20 exporters of goods and reclaimed its position among top 10 services exporters in 2010. India's goods exports rose by 31 per cent in 2010, helping it to improve its world ranking moving up two places to 20 from 22 in 2009.

Furthermore, the number of millionaire households in India will grow from 2,86,000 to 6,94,000 between 2011-2020, at a growth rate of 143 per cent, as per a study by the Deloitte Center for Financial Services. Among emerging markets, India is likely to have the highest per capita wealth among millionaires with US$ 4.25 million — placing it ahead of the US. In comparison to other BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nations, India is likely to experience the largest growth at 405 per cent in total wealth held by the millionaires.

The Economic Scenario

India has been ranked at the second place in global foreign direct investments (FDI) in 2010 and is expected to remain among the top five attractive destinations for international investors during 2010-12, according to a report on world investment prospects titled, 'World Investment Prospects Survey 2009-2012' by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

India's FDI gathered momentum with the inflows growing by 310 per cent in June 2011 to touch US$ 5.65 billion. It is the highest monthly inflow during the last 11 years. The total FDI stood at US$ 16.83 billion during January-June 2011, nearly 57 per cent higher than the US$ 10.74 billion received during the same period last year.

Non-resident Indian (NRI) inflows in the first quarter of 2011-12 has witnessed a rise of 38 per cent as compared to the same period in 2010-11. NRIs invested US$ 1.54 billion in various NRI deposit schemes during April-June 2011.

Private equity (PE) investments in India stood at US$ 6.14 billion in value terms, while the number of deals increased by 33 per cent to 195, during January-June 2011, according to data compiled by Chennai-based Venture Intelligence. The rise in the value of the deals so far (June 2011) recorded a growth of 52 per cent, as compared to US$ 4.04 billion raised during 2010.

India's foreign exchange (Forex) reserves have increased by US$ 1.6 billion to register US$ 318 billion during the week ended August 19, 2011, according to data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The increase in Forex is largely attributed due to valuation changes.

The Government has approved fund raising worth Rs 60,950 crore (US$ 13.24 billion) by companies through external commercial borrowings (ECB) or foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCB) for infrastructure projects in the financial years 2009-2011.

India's merchandise exports have registered an increase of nearly 82 per cent during July 2011 from a year ago to touch US$ 29.3 billion, according to a release by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. Exports during April-July 2011 reached US$ 108.3 billion, up 54 per cent over the same period a year ago, according to Mr Rahul Khullar, Commerce Secretary. Exports in the referred period increased on back of demand for engineering and petroleum products, gems and jewellery and readymade garments.