India is poised to become the world's fastest-growing economy in two years: IMF

New Delhi: India is set to become the world's fastest-growing major economy in about two years from now, as China slows after tearing along at speeds in excess of 10 per cent at times over the past three decades or so, according to latest projections by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook.

The IMF's flagship publication said India's gross domestic product is likely to grow at 6.3 per cent, marginally down from 6.4 per cent projected in October, in the next fiscal year and 6.5 per cent in year to March 2017, which will be the third year of the Narendra Modi government. The World Bank had said last week that it sees China being dislodged by its neighbour to the south in calendar 2017.

Stocks ended at record levels following the IMF data release with the BSE Sensex closing at 28,784.67 points, up 1.85 per cent, and the NSE Nifty rising 1.7 per cent to 8,695.6.

The likely role switch comes amid the Chinese economy stumbling on bad loans from excessive spending and investment drying up. While India's growth forecast is broadly unchanged, that of China has been slashed by half a percentage point from October projections. Official Chinese government data released on Tuesday showed it posted growth of 7.4 per cent last year, missing the official target and slumping to a 24-year low, although this was better than the 7.2 per cent expectation. In India, weaker external demand has been offset by the boost to the terms of trade from lower oil prices and a pickup in industrial and investment activity after policy reforms, the IMF said.

In its global outlook released on January 13, the World Bank projected India to edge past China in 2017, clocking 7 per cent growth compared with China's 6.9 per cent.

IMF's World Economic Outlook said global prospects, barring that of the US, remain bleak with growth projected to tumble to 3.5 per cent in 2015 from 3.8 per cent forecast in October. In 2016, the world is expected to grow by 3.7 per cent as against 4 per cent projected in October. The report sees low crude prices providing some succor but the global economy may be undermined by other factors.

"Global growth will receive a boost from lower oil prices, which reflect to an important extent higher supply. But this boost is projected to be more than offset by negative factors, including investment weakness as adjustment to diminished expectations on medium-term growth continues in many advanced and emerging market economies," it said.

The Modi government has rolled out several measures to perk the economy and lift overall business sentiment since coming to power in May. Various projections put India's growth in 2014-15 at 5.5 per cent after slumping to decadal lows of below 5 per cent in the past two financial years.

The forthcoming budget is expected to build on reform momentum to put the country back on the path to high growth.

IMF deputy director Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti termed the new government's plans as promising but said it's the speed of implementation that will have to be seen.

The revised projection reflects a reassessment of prospects in China, Russia, the euro area and Japan as well as weaker activity in some major oil exporters because of the sharp drop in oil prices. The US is the only major economy for which growth projections have been raised, the IMF said. China's period of rapid economic growth began after reforms were put in place by Deng Xiaoping in the late 1980s.

Disclaimer: This information has been collected through secondary research and IBEF is not responsible for any errors in the same.