Business Standard: March, 2014
New Delhi: The growth in energy demand in India would be the highest among all countries by 2030-35, beating even China, says the 2014 energy outlook report issued by British oil giant BP.
“We project that by 2035, India will become increasingly import-dependent, despite increases in non-fossil fuel production,” it said.
According to the report, India’s energy production would rise by 112 per cent, while consumption would grow by 132 per cent. Oil imports would rise by 169 per cent and account for over 60 per cent of the net increase in imports, followed by increasing imports of gas (+573 per cent) and coal (+85 per cent).
“India’s energy mix evolves very slowly over the next 20 years, with fossil fuels accounting for 87 per cent of demand in 2035, compared to a global average of 81 per cent. This is down from 92 per cent today,” the report added.
Demand for all fossil fuels would expand, led by gas (+183 per cent), oil (+121 per cent), and coal (+108 per cent), while renewables in power would expand by 539 per cent as would nuclear (+366 per cent) and hydro (+127 per cent). India’s share of global demand would zoom to 7 per cent in 2035, accounting for the second largest share of the BRIC countries, compared to China (27 per cent), Russia (5 per cent), and Brazil (3 per cent).
The country’s demand growth of 132 per cent would outpace each of the BRIC countries as Russia (+20 per cent), China (+71 per cent), and Brazil (+71 per cent) would expand slower. India’s growth is almost double the non-OECD aggregate of 69 per cent. India’s energy production as a share of consumption would drop from 61 per cent today to just 56 per cent by 2035 as imports would rise by 163 per cent.
Coal would still remain the dominant fuel produced in India, with a 66 per cent market share in 2035. Renewables in power would overtake oil as the second largest, increasing from 3 per cent to 10 per cent in 2035 as oil drops from 12 per cent to 4 per cent.