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Indian Cement Industry Analysis

July, 2021

India is the second largest cement producer in the world and accounted for over 7% of the global installed capacity. India’s overall cement production capacity was nearly 545 million tonnes (MT) in FY20. Of the total capacity, 98% lies with the private sector and the rest with public sector. The top 20 companies account for around 70% of the total cement production in India. As India has a high quantity and quality of limestone deposits through-out the country, the cement industry promises huge potential for growth.

The demand of cement industry is expected to reach 550-600 MT per annum (MTPA) by 2025 because of the expanding demand of different sectors, i.e., housing, commercial construction, and industrial construction.

India’s overall cement production accounted for 294.4 million tonnes (MT) in FY21 and 329 million tonnes (MT) in FY20.

India’s cement production in February 2021 increased by 7.8% compared to February 2020.

India’s overall cement production accounted for 262 million tonnes (MT) in FY21 (Till February 2021). The cement production is expected to increase by 10% to 12% and the utilization is expected around 65% in FY22.

In FY22, the cement production in India is expected to increase by ~12% YoY, driven by rural housing demand and government’s strong focus on infrastructure development.

The Indian cement industry is likely to add ~80 million tonnes (MT) capacity by FY24, the highest since the last 10 years, driven by increasing spending on housing and infrastructure activities.

Higher allocation for infrastructure–34.9% in roads, 8.7% in metros and 33.6% in railways in budget estimates of FY22, over FY21, is likely to boost demand for cement.

Several government schemes such as MGNREGA, PM Garib Kalyan Rozgar Abhiyan and state-level schemes such as Matir Srisht (West Bengal) and public work schemes (Jharkhand) have aided demand

According to CLSA (institutional brokerage and investment group), the Indian cement sector is witnessing improved demand. Key players reported by the company are ACC, Dalmia and Ultratech Cement. In the second quarter of FY21, Indian cement companies reported a sharp rebound in earnings and demand for the industry increased, driven by rural recovery. With the rural markets normalising, the demand outlook remained strong. For FY21, CLSA expects a 14% YoY increase in EBITDA in the cement market for its coverage stocks.

Growth in Infrastructure and real estate sector, post-COVID-19 pandemic, is likely to augment the demand for cement in 2021. The industry is likely to add an ~8 MTPA capacity in cement production. In the third quarter of FY21, Indian cement companies reported a healthy growth in earnings and demand for the industry increased on the back of resuming construction activities post COVID-19 lockdown imposed by the government.

A total of 210 large cement plants account for a combined installed capacity of 410 MT in the country, whereas 350 mini cement plants make up for the rest. Of the total 210 large cement plants in India, 77 are in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Tamil Nadu. Sale of cement in India stood at Rs 63,771 crore (US$ 9.05 billion) in FY20. To enhance the source of capital for infrastructure financing, Credit Guarantee Enhancement Corporation, for which regulations have been notified by the RBI, will be set up in FY20.

In July 2021, the government established a council of 25 members (comprising UltraTech Cement MD Mr. K C Jhanwar, Dalmia Bharat Group CMD Mr. Puneet Dalmia) for the cement industry to reduce waste, achieve maximum production, enhance quality, reduce costs and encourage standardisation of products.

According to the data released by Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), cement and gypsum products attracted Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) worth US$ 5.87 billion between April 2000 and March 2021.

As per Chemicals & Allied Products Export Promotion Council (CAPEXIL), India’s export of cement, clinker and asbestos stood at US$ 627.7 million in FY21. India exported cement to countries such as Sri Lanka, Nepal, the US, the UAE and Bangladesh.

The Government of India is strongly focused on infrastructure development to boost economic growth and is aiming for 100 smart cities. The Government also intends to expand the capacity of railways and the facilities for handling and storage to ease the transportation of cement and reduce transportation cost. These measures would lead to an increased construction activity, thereby boosting cement demand. The Union Budget allocated Rs. 13,750 crore (US$ 1.88 billion) and Rs. 12,294 crore (US$ 1.68 billion) for Urban Rejuvenation Mission: AMRUT and Smart Cities Mission and Swachh Bharat Mission, respectively and Rs. 27,500 crore (US$ 3.77 billion) has been allotted under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana.

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