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Indian Ecommerce Industry Analysis

July, 2019

The Indian e-commerce industry has been on an upward growth trajectory and is expected to surpass the US to become the second largest e-commerce market in the world by 2034. The E-commerce market is expected to reach US$ 200 billion by 2027 from US$ 38.5 billion in 2017. India's e-commerce market has the potential to grow more than four folds to US$ 150 billion by 2022 supported by rising incomes and surge in internet users. Online shoppers in India are expected to reach 120 million in 2018 and eventually 220 million by 2025. Average online retail spending in India was US$ 224 per user in 2017.

E-commerce and consumer internet companies in India received more than US$ 7 billion in private equity and venture capital in 2018. Online retail sales in India are expected to grow by 31 per cent to touch US$ 32.70 billion in 2018, led by Flipkart, Amazon India and Paytm Mall. Online retail is expected to contribute 2.9 per cent of retail market in 2018.

Much growth of the industry has been triggered by increasing internet and smartphone penetration. Internet penetration in India grew from just 4 per cent in 2007 to 34.42 per cent in 2017, registering a CAGR of 24 per cent between 2007 and 2017. As of December 2018 overall internet penetration in India was 46.13 per cent. The number of internet users in India is expected to increase from 604.21 million as of December 2018 to 829 million by 2021. Internet penetration in rural India is expected to grow as high as 45 per cent by 2021 compared to the current rate of 23.87 per cent. The e-commerce retail logistics market in India is estimated at US$ 1.35 billion in 2018 and is expected to grow at a 36 per cent CAGR over the next five years. It also received and investment of $6.25 billion from January –May 2019.

A young demographic profile, rising internet penetration and relative better economic performance are the key drivers of this sector. The Government of India's policies and regulatory frameworks such as 100 per cent foreign direct investment (FDI) in B2B e-commerce and 100 per cent FDI under automatic route under the market place model of B2C e-commerce are expected to further propel growth in the sectors. As of August 2018, the government is working on the second draft of e-commerce policy, incorporating inputs from various industry stakeholders. In February 2019, the Government of India released the Draft National e-Commerce Policy which encourages FDI in the marketplace model of e-commerce. Further, it states that the FDI policy for e-commerce sector has been developed to ensure a level playing field for all participants. According to the draft, a registered entity is needed for the e-commerce sites and apps to operate in India.

 

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