Estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the Second Quarter (July-September) of 2015-16

New Delhi: The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (July-September) Q2 of 2015-16, both at constant (2011-12) and current prices, along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP.

2. The details of the estimates GDP for Q2, 2015-16 are presented below.

I  ESTIMATES OF GVA BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

(a) At constant (2011-2012) prices

3. GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q2 of 2015-16 is estimated at `27.57 lakh crore, as against `25.66 lakh crore in Q2 of 2014-15, showing a growth rate of 7.4 percent.  Quarterly GVA at Basic Price at constant (2011-12) prices for Q2 of 2015-16 is estimated at `25.80 lakh crore, as against `24.02 lakh crore in Q2 of 2014-15, showing a growth rate of 7.4 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

4.  The economic activities which registered growth of over 7.0 percent in Q2 of 2015-16 over Q2 of 2014-15 are ‘trade, hotels and transport & communication and services related to broadcasting’, 'financial, insurance, real estate and professional services' and ‘manufacturing’. The growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services, ‘construction’  and 'public administration, defence and other services’  is estimated to be 2.2 per cent, 3.2 percent, 6.7 per cent,  2.6 per cent and 4.7 per cent, respectively, during this period.

5. Industry analysis

The second quarter estimates are based on agricultural production during Kharif season of 2015-16 obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture, Department of Agriculture & Cooperation(DAC), abridged financial results  of  listed companies from BSE/NSE, Index of Industrial Production (IIP), monthly accounts of Union Government Expenditure maintained by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and of State Government expenditure maintained by Comptroller and Auditor general of India (CAG) for the period July-September 2015-16.  Performance of key indicators of sectors like transport including railways, road, air and water transport etc., communication, banking and insurance during the period July -September 2015-16 have been taken into account while compiling the estimates. Performance of the corporate sector during July-September, 2015-16 based on data received from BSE/NSE have been taken into account.  Estimated growth in the indicator compiled on the basis of employee expenses, Profit before tax and depreciation of listed companies deflated by appropriate price indices has been used to extrapolate the corporate sector estimates of the same quarter of the previous year.

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

5.1  Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 2015-16 from ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector grew by 2.2 percent as compared to growth of 2.1 percent in Q2 2014-15. According  to the information  furnished  by  the  Department  of  Agriculture  and Cooperation  (DAC),  which  has been  used  in  compiling  the  estimate  of  GVA from agriculture in Q2 of  2015-16, the production of  cereals, oilseeds and pulses registered growth rates of  (-)1.8 percent, 8.5 percent and (-)1.1 percent respectively during  the  Kharif  season of agriculture year 2015-16.  Around 51.0 percent of GVA of this sector is based on the livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which registered a combined growth of above 6 percent in Q2 of 2015-16.

Mining and quarrying

5.2. Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 2015-16 from ‘mining and quarrying’ sector grew by 3.2 percent as compared to growth of 1.4 percent in Q2 2014-15. As per the available information, private corporate sector growth in the mining sector as estimated for major listed companies at current prices is 5.4 percent in Q2 of 2015-16.  The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of coal, crude oil and natural gas and IIP mining registered growth rates of 0.9 per cent, 1.7 percent, 0.5 percent and 2.7 percent, during Q2 of 2015-16 as compared to 8.8 percent, (-)2.4 percent, (-)7.9 percent and 0.5 percent in Q2 of 2014-15.

Manufacturing

5.3 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 2015-16 from ‘manufacturing’ sector grew by 9.3 percent as compared to growth of 7.9 percent in Q2 2014-15. The private corporate sector growth (which has a share of around 65 percent in the manufacturing sector) as estimated from available data of listed companies with BSE and NSE is 8.1 percent at current prices during Q2 of 2015-16 and hence the growth of this sector at constant price is 9.3 percent. The quasi corporate and unorganized segment (which include individual proprietorship and partnerships and khadi & village Industries has a share of around 26 percent in the manufacturing sector) has been estimated using IIP of manufacturing. IIP manufacturing registered growth rates of 4.6 percent during Q2 of 2015-16 as compared to 0.4 percent in Q2 of 2014-15.

Electricity, Gas, water supply and other utility services

 5.4 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for  Q2 2015-16 from  ‘Electricity ,Gas, water supply and other utility services’  sector  grew by 6.7 percent as compared to growth of 8.7 percent in Q2 2014-15.   The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity registered growth rate of 6.8 percent during Q2 of 2015-16 as compared to 9.4 percent in Q2 of 2014-15.

Construction

5.5 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 2015-16 from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 2.6 percent as compared to growth of 8.7 percent in Q2 2014-15.  Key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 1.6 percent and 1.2 percent respectively during Q2 of 2015-16.The growth in the unaccounted construction which has a share of 12.0 percent in total construction sector is estimated to grow above 10.0 percent.

Trade, hotels and Transport & communication and services related to broadcasting

5.6. Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 2015-16 from this sector grew by 10.6 percent as compared to growth of 8.9 percent in Q2 2014-15. Key indicator used for estimating GVA from Trade sector is the sales tax growth.  As per the available monthly data on state accounts available from CAG website, sales tax collection grew by 6.1 percent during Q2 of 2015-16, which at constant prices is estimated at 11.1 percent. Among the other services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth rate of (-) 2.9 per cent and 1.1 percent respectively during Q2 of 2015-16.  In case of other transport sectors, passengers handled by the civil aviation, cargo handled by the civil aviation and cargo handled at major ports registered growth rates of 17.0 percent, 3.5 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively, during Q2 of 2015-16. Sales of commercial vehicles registered 10.7 percent growth during Q2 of 2015-16 over Q2 of 2014-15.

Financial, insurance, real estate and professional services

5.7 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 2015-16 from this sector grew by 9.7 percent as compared to growth of 13.5 percent in Q2 2014-15.  Major component of this industry is the real estate and professional services which has a share of 75.0 percent. The key indicators of this sector are the quarterly growth of corporate sector for real estate sector and computer related activities which as estimated from available data from listed companies at current prices is 3.6 percent and 15.6 percent, respectively, during Q2 of 2015-16. The other indicators of this sector, viz., aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth rates of 10.7 per cent, and 9.1 per cent, respectively as on September 2015 as against growth of  12.4 percent and 9.6 percent respectively  as on September 2014.

Public administration and defence and other services

5.8 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 2015-16 from this sector grew by 4.7 percent as compared to growth of 7.1 percent in Q2 2014-15. The key indicator of this sector namely, union government expenditure net of interest payments grew by 1.2 percent during Q2 of 2015-16 as compared to 6.4 percent in Q2 of 2014-15.

(b)     At current prices

6. GDP is derived by adding taxes on products net of subsidies on products to GVA at basic prices. GDP at current prices in Q2 of 2015-16 is estimated at `32.66 lakh crore, as against `30.80 lakh crore in Q2 of 2014-15, showing a growth rate of 6.0 percent. GVA at basic price at current prices in Q2 of 2015-16, is estimated at `30.26 lakh crore, as against `28.76 lakh crore in Q2, 2014-15, showing an increase of 5.2 per cent.

(c)   Price indices used as deflators

7. The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups - food articles, minerals, manufactured products and all commodities, has declined by 0.5 per cent, 31.6 percent, 1.8 per cent, and 4.5 percent, respectively whereas electricity registered a growth of 4.5 percent during Q2 of 2015-16 over Q2 of 2014-15. The consumer price index has shown a rise of 3.9 per cent during Q2 of 2015-16 over Q2 of 2014-15.

II   ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP

8. The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices.  The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

9. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at `19.60 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16 as against `18.09 lakh crore in Q2 of 2014-15.  At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at `15.41 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16 as against `14.43 lakh crore in Q2 of 2014-15. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q2 of 2015-16 are estimated at 60.0 per cent and 55.9 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 58.7 per cent and 56.2 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2014-15. Growth rates of Private Final Consumption Expenditure at current and constant prices are estimated at 8.3 percent and 6.8 percent during Q2, 2015-16 as compared to 13.6 percent and 7.1 percent respectively during Q2 2014-15.

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

10. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at `4.52 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16 as against `4.23 lakh crore in Q2 of 2014-15. At constant Anchor(2011-2012) prices, the GFCE is estimated at `3.56 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16 as against `3.38 lakh crore in Q2 of 2014-15. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and constant(2011-2012) prices during Q2 of 2015-16 are estimated at 13.8 per cent and 12.9 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rate of 13.7 per cent and 13.2 percent each in Q2 of 2014-15. Growth rates of Government Final Consumption Expenditure at current and constant prices are estimated at 6.9 percent and 5.2 percent respectively during Q2, 2015-16 as compared to 15.6 percent and 8.9 percent  respectively during Q2 2014-15.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

11. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at `9.24 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16 as against `8.89 lakh crore in Q2 of 2014-15. At constant (2011-2012) prices, the GFCF is estimated at `8.31 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16 as against `7.78 lakh crore in Q2 of 2014- 15. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q2 of 2015-16 are estimated at 28.3 per cent and 30.1 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 28.9 per cent and 30.3 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2014-15. Growth rates of Gross Fixed Capital Formation at current and constant prices are estimated at 3.9  percent and 6.8 percent during Q2 2015-16 as compared to 7.7 percent and 3.8 percent during Q2 2014-15.

12. Estimates of GVA at basic price by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for Q2 and H1 (April-September) of 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2015-16 at constant (2011-12) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 8. Quarterly estimates of GDP for 2013-14 and 2014-15 at current and constant 2011-12 prices as per press release dated 29.05.2015 are given in Annexures I & II.

13. The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter October-December, 2015 (Q3 of 2015-16) will be on 08.02.2016.

Disclaimer: This information has been collected through secondary research and IBEF is not responsible for any errors in the same.