Retail
By 2018, the Indian retail sector is likely to grow at a CAGR of 13 per cent to reach US$ 950 billion.

Retail Industry in India

Latest update: February, 2016

Strong growth in the Indian Retail Industry

 

• The retail sector in India is emerging as one of the largest sectors   in the economy

• By 2015, the total market size is estimated to be around US$ 600   billion,thereby registering a CAGR of 7.45 per cent since 2000.

• Retail industry is expected to grow to US$ 1.3 trillion by 2020,   registering a CAGR of 9.7 per cent between 2000-2020

Passenger vehicle exports from India

Organised retail in nascent stage

 

• The Indian retail market is in its nascent stage; unorganised   players accounted for 92 per cent of the market during 2015

• There are over 15 million mom-and-pop stores

• Between FY09-13, organised retail in India witnessed a CAGR of   19-20 per cent

• Organised retail is expected to account for 24 per cent of the   overall retail market by 2020

Passenger vehicle exports from India

 

Last Updated: February, 2016

SECTORAL REPORT | January, 2016

Introduction

The Indian retail industry has emerged as one of the most dynamic and fast-paced industries due to the entry of several new players. It accounts for over 10 per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and around 8 per cent of the employment. India is the world’s fifth-largest global destination in the retail space.

Market Size

The Boston Consulting Group and Retailers Association of India published a report titled, ‘Retail 2020: Retrospect, Reinvent, Rewrite’, highlighting that India’s retail market is expected to nearly double to US$ 1 trillion by 2020 from US$ 600 billion in 2015, driven by income growth, urbanisation and attitudinal shifts.

The report adds that while the overall retail market is expected to grow at 12 per cent per annum, modern trade would expand twice as fast at 20 per cent per annum and traditional trade at 10 per cent.

Retail spending in the top seven Indian cities amounted to Rs 3.58 trillion (US$ 53.7 billion), with organised retail penetration at 19 per cent as of 2014. Online retail is expected to be at par with the physical stores in the next five years.

India is expected to become the world’s fastest growing e-commerce market, driven by robust investment in the sector and rapid increase in the number of internet users. Various agencies have high expectations about growth of Indian e-commerce markets. Indian e-commerce sales are expected to reach US$ 55 billion! by FY2018 from US$ 14 billion in FY2015. Further, India's e-commerce market is expected to reach US$ 220 billion in terms of gross merchandise value (GMV) and 530 million shoppers by 2025, led by faster speeds on reliable telecom networks, faster adoption of online services and better variety as well as convenience@.

India’s direct selling industry increased 6.5 per cent in FY2014-15 to Rs 7,958 crore (US$ 1.19 billion) and is expected to reach a size of Rs 23,654 crore (US$ 3.55 billion) by FY2019-20, as per a joint report by India Direct Selling Association (IDSA) and PHD.

Investment Scenario

The Indian retail industry in the single-brand segment has received Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) equity inflows totalling US$ 344.9 million during April 2000–September 2015, according to the Department of Industrial Policies and Promotion (DIPP).

With the rising need for consumer goods in different sectors including consumer electronics and home appliances, many companies have invested in the Indian retail space in the past few months.

  • Amazon India expanded its logistics footprint three times to more than 2,100 cities and towns in 2015, as Amazon.com invested more than US$ 700 million in its India operations since July 2014.
  • Adidas AG, reknowned for its Adidas and Reebok sports brands, has become the first foreign sports company to get government approval to open 100 per cent foreign-owned stores in India.
  • Walmart India plans to add 50 more cash-and-carry stores in India over the next four to five years.
  • >Aeropostale, an American teen fashion retailer, has chosen to enter India over China, and expects India to be among its top three markets over the next four years with revenue target of Rs 500 crore (US$ 75 million).
  • Opinio, a hyperlocal delivery start-up, has raised US$ 7 million in a Series-A funding from Gurgaon-based e-commerce fulfilment service firm Delhivery along with investment from Sands Capital and Accel Partners.
  • Textile major Arvind Limited has announced a partnership with Sephora, owned by LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton, a French luxury conglomerate, in order to enter into the beauty and cosmetics segment.
  • Mobile wallet company MobiKwik has partnered with Jabong.com to provide mobile payment services to Jabong’s customers.
  • DataWind partnered with HomeShop18 to expand its retail footprint in the country. Under the partnership, HomeShop18 and DataWind would jointly launch special sales programmes across broadcast, mobile and internet media to provide greater access to the latter’s tablet range.
  • FashionAndYou has opened three distribution hubs in Surat, Mumbai and Bengaluru to accelerate deliveries.
  • Abu Dhabi-based Lulu Group plans to invest Rs 2,500 crore (US$ 375 million) in a fruit and vegetable processing unit, an integrated meat processing unit, and a modern shopping mall in Hyderabad, Telangana.
  • Aditya Birla Retail, a part of the US$ 40 billion Aditya Birla Group and the fourth-largest supermarket retailer in the country, acquired Total hypermarkets owned by Jubilant Retail.
  • With an aim to strengthen its advertising segment, Flipkart acquired mobile ad network AdiQuity, which has a history of mobile innovations and valuable experience in the ad space.
  • US-based Pizza chain Sbarro plans an almost threefold increase in its store count from the current 17 to 50 over the next two years through multiple business models.

Government Initiatives

The Government of India has taken various initiatives to improve the retail industry in India.

  • The Ministry of Urban Development has come out with a Smart National Common Mobility Card (NCMC) model to enable seamless travel by metros and other transport systems across the country, as well as retail purchases.
  • IKEA, the world’s largest furniture retailer, bought its first piece of land in India in Hyderabad, the joint capital of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, for building a retail store. IKEA’s retail outlets have a standard design and each location entails an investment of around Rs 500–600 crore (US$ 75–90 million).
  • The Government of India has accepted the changes proposed by Rajya Sabha select committee to the bill introducing Goods and Services Tax (GST). Implementation of GST is expected to enable easier movement of goods across the country, thereby improving retail operations for pan-India retailers.
  • The Government has approved a proposal to scrap the distinctions among different types of overseas investments by shifting to a single composite limit, which means portfolio investment up to 49 per cent will not require government approval nor will it have to comply with sectoral conditions as long as it does not result in a transfer of ownership and/or control of Indian entities to foreigners. As a result, foreign investments are expected to be increase, especially in the attractive retail sector.

The Road Ahead

E-commerce is expanding steadily in the country. Customers have the ever increasing choice of products at the lowest rates. E-commerce is probably creating the biggest revolution in the retail industry, and this trend would continue in the years to come. Retailers should leverage the digital retail channels (e-commerce), which would enable them to spend less money on real estate while reaching out to more customers in tier-2 and tier-3 cities.  

Both organised and unorganised retail companies have to work together to ensure better prospects for the overall retail industry, while generating new benefits for their customers.
Nevertheless, the long-term outlook for the industry is positive, supported by rising incomes, favourable demographics, entry of foreign players, and increasing urbanisation.

Exchange Rate Used: INR 1 = US$ 0.015 as on December 17, 2015

References: Media Reports, Press Releases, Deloitte report, Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion website, Union Budget 2015–16

Note – ! - as per marketing research firm eMarketer, @ - , as per Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofA-ML) report.

Disclaimer: This information has been collected through secondary research and IBEF is not responsible for any errors in the same.

Retail India

Market size over the past few years (US$ billion)
Retail India

 

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