About Indian Economy Growth Rate & Statistics

Introduction

India has emerged as the fastest growing major economy in the world and is expected to be one of the top three economic powers in the world over the next 10-15 years, backed by its robust democracy and strong partnerships.

Market size

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices stood at Rs. 51.23 lakh crore (US$ 694.93 billion) in the first quarter of FY22, as per the provisional estimates of gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2021-22.

India is the fourth-largest unicorn base in the world with over 21 unicorns collectively valued at US$ 73.2 billion, as per the Hurun Global Unicorn List. By 2025, India is expected to have ~100 unicorns by 2025 and will create ~1.1 million direct jobs according to the Nasscom-Zinnov report ‘Indian Tech Start-up’.

India needs to increase its rate of employment growth and create 90 million non-farm jobs between 2023 and 2030's, for productivity and economic growth according to McKinsey Global Institute. Net employment rate needs to grow by 1.5% per year from 2023 to 2030 to achieve 8-8.5% GDP growth between 2023 and 2030.

According to data from the Department of Economic Affairs, as of August 27, 2021, foreign exchange reserves in India reached US$ 633.5 billion mark.

Recent Developments 

With an improvement in the economic scenario, there have been investments across various sectors of the economy. The private equity - venture capital (PE-VC) sector recorded investments worth US$ 10.7 billion across 137 deals in August 2021, registering a 5x YoY growth. Some of the important recent developments in Indian economy are as follows:

• India’s merchandise exports between April 2021 and August 2021 were estimated at US$ 164.10 billion (a 67.33% YoY increase). Merchandise imports between April 2021 and August 2021 were estimated at US$ 219.63 billion (an 80.89% YoY growth).
• In August 2021, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in India stood at 52.3.
• The gross GST (Goods and Services Tax) revenue collection stood at Rs. 112,020 crore (US$ 15.21 billion) in August 2021.
• According to the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), FDI equity inflow in India stood at US$ 547.2 billion between April 2000 and June 2021.
• India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for July 2021 stood at 131.4 against 122.6 for June 2021.
• Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) – Combined inflation was 3.11 in August 2021 against 3.96 in July 2021.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Combined inflation was 5.30 in August 2021 against 5.59 in July 2021.
• Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) invested US$ 2.5 billion in India in August 2021.

Government Initiatives

The first Union Budget of the third decade of 21st century was presented by Minister for Finance & Corporate Affairs, Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman in the Parliament on February 1, 2020. The budget aimed at energising the Indian economy through a combination of short-term, medium-term and long-term measures.

In the Union Budget 2021-22, capital expenditure for FY22 is likely to increase to increase by 34.5% at Rs. 5.5 lakh crore (US$ 75.81 billion) over FY21 (BE) to boost the economy.

Increased government expenditure is expected to attract private investments, with production-linked incentive scheme providing excellent opportunities. Consistently proactive, graded and measured policy support is anticipated to boost the Indian economy.

In September 2021, Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi approved the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme in the textiles sector—for man-made fibre (MMF) apparel, MMF fabrics and 10 segments/products of technical textiles—at an estimated outlay of Rs. 10,683 crore (US$ 1.45 billion).

In September 2021, the government approved a production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme for automobile and drone industries with an outlay of Rs. 26,058 crore (US$ 3.54 billion) to boost the country’s manufacturing capabilities.

In September 2021, Union Cabinet approved major reforms in the telecom sector, which is expected to boost employment, growth, competition and consumer interests. Key reforms include rationalisation of adjusted gross revenue, rationalisation of bank guarantees (BGs) and encouragement to spectrum sharing.

In September 2021, the government announced plans to release Rs. 56,027 crore (US$ 7.62 billion) under various export promotion schemes to boost exports.

In August 2021, the Indian government approved Deep Ocean Mission (DOM) with a budget outlay of Rs. 4,077 crore (US$ 553.82 million) over the next five years.

In May 2021, the government approved the production linked incentive (PLI) scheme for manufacturing advanced chemistry cell (ACC) batteries at an estimated outlay of Rs. 18,100 crore (US$ 2.44 billion); this move is expected to attract domestic and foreign investments worth Rs. 45,000 crore (US$ 6.07 billion).

The Union Cabinet approved the production linked incentive (PLI) scheme for white goods (air conditioners and LED lights) with a budgetary outlay of Rs. 6,238 crore (US$ 848.96 million) and the 'National Programme on High Efficiency Solar PV (Photo Voltic) Modules' with an outlay of Rs. 4,500 crore US$ 612.43 million).

In June 2021, the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) announced that the investment limit for FPI (foreign portfolio investors) in the State Development Loans (SDLs) and government securities (G-secs) would persist unaffected at 2% and 6%, respectively, in FY22.

To boost the overall audit quality, transparency and add value to businesses, in April 2021, the RBI issued a notice on new norms to appoint statutory and central auditors for commercial banks, large urban co-operatives and large non-banks and housing finance firms.

In May 2021, the Government of India has allocated Rs. 2,250 crore (US$ 306.80 million) for development of the horticulture sector in 2021-22.

In November 2020, the Government of India announced Rs. 2.65 lakh crore (US$ 36 billion) stimulus package to generate job opportunities and provide liquidity support to various sectors such as tourism, aviation, construction and housing. Also, India's cabinet approved the production-linked incentives (PLI) scheme to provide ~Rs. 2 trillion (US$ 27 billion) over five years to create jobs and boost production in the country.

Numerous foreign companies are setting up their facilities in India on account of various Government initiatives like Make in India and Digital India. Mr. Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, launched Make in India initiative with an aim to boost country’s manufacturing sector and increase purchasing power of an average Indian consumer, which would further drive demand and spur development, thus benefiting investors. The Government of India, under its Make in India initiative, is trying to boost the contribution made by the manufacturing sector with an aim to take it to 25% of the GDP from the current 17%. Besides, the Government has also come up with Digital India initiative, which focuses on three core components: creation of digital infrastructure, delivering services digitally and to increase the digital literacy.

Some of the recent initiatives and developments undertaken by the Government are listed below:

• By November 1, 2021, India and the United Kingdom hope to begin negotiations on a free trade agreement. The proposed FTA between these two countries is likely to unlock business opportunities and generate jobs. Both sides have renewed their commitment to boost trade in a manner that benefits all.
• In August 2021, NITI Aayog and Cisco collaborated to encourage women's entrepreneurship in India.
• In August 2021, Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi announced an initiative to start a national mission to reach the US$ 400 billion merchandise export target by FY22.
• In August 2021, Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi launched digital payment solution, e-RUPI, a contactless and cashless instrument for digital payments.
• In June 2021, RBI Governor, Mr. Shaktikanta Das announced the policy repo rate unchanged at 4%. He also announced various measures including Rs. 15,000 crore (US$ 2.05 billion) liquidity support to contact-intensive sectors such as tourism and hospitality.
• In June 2021, Finance Ministers of G-7 countries, including the US, the UK, Japan, Italy, Germany, France and Canada, attained a historic contract on taxing multinational firms as per which the minimum global tax rate would be at least 15%. The move is expected to benefit India to increase foreign direct investments in the country.
• In June 2021, the Indian government signed a US$ 32 million loan with World Bank for improving healthcare services in Mizoram.
• In May 2021, the Government of India (GoI) and European Investment Bank (EIB) signed the finance contract for second tranche of EUR 150 million (US$ 182.30 million) for Pune Metro Rail project.
• According to an official source, as of September 15, 2021, 52 companies have filed applications under the Rs. 5,866 crore (US$ 796.19 million) production-linked incentive scheme for the white goods (air conditioners and LED lights) sector.
• In May 2021, Union Cabinet has approved the signing of memorandum of understanding (MoU) on migration and mobility partnership between the Government of India, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
• In April 2021, Minister for Railways and Commerce & Industry and Consumer Affairs, Food & Public Distribution, Mr. Piyush Goyal, launched ‘DGFT Trade Facilitation’ app to provide instant access to exporters/importers anytime and anywhere.
• In April 2021, Dr. Ahmed Abdul Rahman AlBanna, Ambassador of the UAE to India and Founding Patron of IFIICC, stated that trilateral trade between India, the UAE and Israel is expected to reach US$ 110 billion by 2030.

• India is expected to attract investment of around US$ 100 billion in developing the oil and gas infrastructure during 2019-23.
• The Government of India is going to increase public health spending to 2.5% of the GDP by 2025.
• For implementation of Agriculture Export Policy, Government approved an outlay Rs. 2.068 billion (US$ 29.59 million) for 2019, aimed at doubling farmers income by 2022.

Road Ahead

As per the data published in a Department of Economic Affairs report, in the first quarter of FY22, India’s output recorded a 20.1% YoY growth, recovering >90% of the pre-pandemic output in the first quarter of FY20. India’s real gross value added (GVA) also recorded an 18.8% YoY increase in the first quarter of FY22, posting a recovery of >92% of its corresponding pre-pandemic level (in the first quarter of FY20). Also, in FY21, India recorded a current account surplus at 0.9% of the GDP. The growth in the economic recovery is due to the government’s continued efforts to accelerate vaccination coverage among citizens. This also provided an optimistic outlook to further revive industrial activities.

As per RBI’s revised estimates of July 2021, the real GDP growth of the country is estimated at 21.4% for the first quarter of FY22. The increase in the tax collection, along with government’s budget support to states, strengthened the overall growth of the Indian economy.

India is focusing on renewable sources to generate energy. It is planning to achieve 40% of its energy from non-fossil sources by 2030, which is currently 30% and have plans to increase its renewable energy capacity from to 175 gigawatt (GW) by 2022. In line with this, in May 2021, India, along with the UK, jointly launched a ‘Roadmap 2030’ to collaborate and combat climate change by 2030.

India is expected to be the third largest consumer economy as its consumption may triple to US$ 4 trillion by 2025, owing to shift in consumer behaviour and expenditure pattern, according to a Boston Consulting Group (BCG) report. It is estimated to surpass USA to become the second largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) by 2040 as per a report by PricewaterhouseCoopers.

Note: Conversion rate used for September 2021 is Rs. 1 = US$ 0.014