Indian Economy: Overview, Market Size, Growth, Development, Statistics...IBEF

About Indian Economy Growth Rate & Statistics

Overview

Last updated: Dec, 2022

Introduction

Strong economic growth in the first quarter of FY 2022-23 helped India overcome the UK to become the fifth-largest economy after it recovered from repeated waves of COVID-19 pandemic shock. Real GDP in the first quarter of 2022–23 is currently about 4% higher than its corresponding 2019-20, indicating a strong start for India's recovery from the pandemic. Given the release of pent-up demand and the widespread vaccination coverage, the contact-intensive services sector will probably be the main driver of development in 2022–2023. Rising employment and substantially increasing private consumption, supported by rising consumer sentiment, will support GDP growth in the coming months.

Future capital spending of the government in the economy is expected to be supported by factors such as tax buoyancy, the streamlined tax system with low rates, a thorough assessment and rationalisation of the tariff structure, and the digitization of tax filing. In the medium run, increased capital spending on infrastructure and asset-building projects is set to increase growth multipliers, and with the revival in monsoon and the Kharif sowing, agriculture is also picking up momentum. The contact-based services sector has largely demonstrated promise to boost growth by unleashing the pent-up demand over the period of April-September 2022. The sector's success is being captured by a number of HFIs (High-Frequency Indicators) that are performing well, indicating the beginnings of a comeback.

India has emerged as the fastest-growing major economy in the world and is expected to be one of the top three economic powers in the world over the next 10-15 years, backed by its robust democracy and strong partnerships.

Market size

India’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices is estimated to be at Rs. 232.15 trillion (US$ 3.12 trillion) in FY22. With more than 100 unicorns valued at US$ 332.7 billion, India has the third-largest unicorn base in the world. The government is also focusing on renewable sources to generate energy and is planning to achieve 40% of its energy from non-fossil sources by 2030.

According to the McKinsey Global Institute, India needs to boost its rate of employment growth and create 90 million non-farm jobs between 2023 and 2030 in order to increase productivity and economic growth. The net employment rate needs to grow by 1.5% per annum from 2023 to 2030 to achieve 8-8.5% GDP growth between 2023 and 2030. India's current account deficit (CAD), primarily driven by an increase in the trade deficit, stood at 2.1% of GDP in the first quarter of FY 2022-23.

Exports fared remarkably well during the pandemic and aided recovery when all other growth engines were losing steam in terms of their contribution to GDP. Going forward, the contribution of merchandise exports may waver as several of India’s trade partners witness an economic slowdown. According to Mr. Piyush Goyal, Minister of Commerce and Industry, Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution and Textiles, Indian exports are expected to reach US$ 1 trillion by 2030.

Recent Developments

India is primarily a domestic demand-driven economy, with consumption and investments contributing to 70% of the economic activity. With an improvement in the economic scenario and the Indian economy recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic shock, several investments and developments have been made across various sectors of the economy. According to World Bank, India must continue to prioritise lowering inequality while also putting growth-oriented policies into place to boost the economy. In view of this, there have been some developments that have taken place in the recent past. Some of them are mentioned below.

As of September 21, 2022, India’s foreign exchange reserves stood at US$ 524,520 million.
The private equity-venture capital (PE-VC) sector investments stood at US$ 2 billion in September 2022.
Merchandise exports in September 2022 stood at US$ 32.62 billion.
PMI Services remained comfortably in the expansionary zone at 56.7 during April-September 2022
In September 2022, the gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue collection stood at Rs. 147,686 crore (US$ 17.92 billion).
Between April 2000-June 2022, cumulative FDI equity inflows to India stood at US$ 604,996 million.
In August 2022, the overall IIP (Index of Industrial Production) stood at 131.3. The Indices of Industrial Production for the mining, manufacturing and electricity sectors stood at 99.6, 131.0 and 191.3, respectively, in August 2022.
According to data released by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MoSPI), India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation reached 7.41% in September 2022.
In FY 2022-23, (until October 28, 2022), Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) outflows stood at Rs. 58,762 crore (US$ 7.13 billion).
The wheat procurement in Rabi 2021-22 and the anticipated paddy purchase in Kharif 2021-22 would include 1208 lakh (120.8 million) metric tonnes of wheat and paddy from 163 lakh (16.7 million) farmers, as well as a direct payment of MSP value of Rs. 2.37 lakh crore (US$ 31.74 billion) to their accounts.

Government Initiatives

Over the years, the Indian government has introduced many initiatives to strengthen the nation's economy. The Indian government has been effective in developing policies and programmes that are not only beneficial for citizens to improve their financial stability but also for the overall growth of the economy. Over recent decades, India's rapid economic growth has led to a substantial increase in its demand for exports. Besides this, a number of the government's flagship programmes, including Make in India, Start-up India, Digital India, the Smart City Mission, and the Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation, are aimed at creating immense opportunities in India. In this regard, some of the initiatives taken by the government to improve the economic condition of the country are mentioned below:

Home & Cooperation Minister Mr. Amit Shah, laid the foundation stone and performed Bhoomi Pujan of Shri Tanot Mandir Complex Project under Border Tourism Development Programme in Jaisalmer in September 2022.
In August 2022, Mr. Narendra Singh Tomar, Minister of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare inaugurated four new facilities at the Central Arid Zone Research Institute (CAZRI), which has been rendering excellent services for more than 60 years under the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR).
In August 2022, a Special Food Processing Fund of Rs. 2,000 crore (US$ 242.72 million) was set up with National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) to provide affordable credit for investments in setting up Mega Food Parks (MFP) as well as processing units in the MFPs.
In July 2022, Deendayal Port Authority (DPA) announced plans to develop two Mega Cargo Handling Terminals on a Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) basis under Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Mode at an estimated cost of Rs. 5,963 crore (US$ 747.64 million).
In July 2022, the Union Cabinet chaired by the Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi, approved the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between India & Maldives. This MoU will provide a platform to tap the benefits of information technology for court digitization and can be a potential growth area for the IT companies and start-ups in both the countries.
India and Namibia entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on wildlife conservation and sustainable biodiversity utilization on July 20, 2022, for establishing the cheetah into the historical range in India.
In July 2022, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) approved international trade settlements in Indian rupees (INR) in order to promote the growth of global trade with emphasis on exports from India and to support the increasing interest of the global trading community.
In June 2022, Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi inaugurated and laid the foundation stone of development projects worth Rs. 21,000 crore (US$ 2.63 billion) at Gujarat Gaurav Abhiyan at Vadodara.
Mr. Rajnath Singh, Minister of Defence, launched 75 newly-developed Artificial Intelligence (AI) products/technologies during the first-ever ‘AI in Defence’ (AIDef) symposium and exhibition organized by the Ministry of Defence in New Delhi on 11 July 2022.

In June 2022:
- Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi, laid the foundation stone of 1,406 projects worth more than Rs. 80,000 crore (US$ 10.01 billion) at the groundbreaking ceremony of the UP Investors Summit in Lucknow.
- The Projects encompass diverse sectors like Agriculture and Allied industries, IT and Electronics, MSME, Manufacturing, Renewable Energy, Pharma, Tourism, Defence & Aerospace, Handloom & Textiles.

The Indian Institute of Spices Research (IISR) under the Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR) inked a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Lysterra LLC, a Russia-based company for the commercialization of biocapsule, an encapsulation technology for bio-fertilization on 30 June, 2022.
As of April 2022, India signed 13 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with its trading partners including major trade agreements like the India-UAE Comprehensive Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and the India-Australia Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (IndAus ECTA).
The Union Budget of 2022-23 was presented on February 1, 2022, by the Minister for Finance & Corporate Affairs, Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman. The budget had four priorities PM GatiShakti, Inclusive Development, Productivity Enhancement and Investment, and Financing of Investments. In the Union Budget 2022-23, effective capital expenditure is expected to increase by 27% at Rs. 10.68 lakh crore (US$ 142.93 billion) to boost the economy. This will be 4.1% of the total Gross Domestic Production (GDP).
Under PM GatiShakti Master Plan, the National Highway Network will develop 25,000 km of new highways network, which will be worth Rs. 20,000 crore (US$ 2.67 billion). In 2022-23. Increased government expenditure is expected to attract private investments, with a production-linked incentive scheme providing excellent opportunities. Consistently proactive, graded, and measured policy support is anticipated to boost the Indian economy.
In February 2022, Minister for Finance and Corporate Affairs Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman said that productivity linked incentive (PLI) schemes would be extended to 14 sectors to achieve the mission of AtmaNirbhar Bharat and create 60 lakh jobs with an additional production capacity of Rs. 30 lakh crore (US$ 401.49 billion) in the next five years.
In the Union Budget of 2022-23, the government announced funding for the production linked incentive (PLI) scheme for domestic solar cells and module manufacturing of Rs. 24,000 crore (US$ 3.21 billion).
In the Union Budget of 2022-23, the government announced a production linked incentive (PLI) scheme for Bulk Drugs which was an investment of Rs. 2500 crore (US$ 334.60 million).
In the Union Budget of 2022, Minister for Finance & Corporate Affairs Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman announced that a scheme for design-led manufacturing in 5G would be launched as part of the PLI scheme.
In September 2021, Union Cabinet approved major reforms in the telecom sector, which are expected to boost employment, growth, competition, and consumer interests. Key reforms include rationalization of adjusted gross revenue, rationalization of bank guarantees (BGs), and encouragement of spectrum sharing.
In the Union Budget of 2022-23, the government has allocated Rs. 44,720 crore (US$ 5.98 billion) to Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL) for capital investments in the 4G spectrum.
Minister for Finance & Corporate Affairs Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman allocated Rs. 650 crore (US$ 86.69 million) for the Deep Ocean mission that seeks to explore vast marine living and non-living resources. Department of Space (DoS) has got Rs. 13,700 crore (US$ 1.83 billion) in 2022-23 for several key space missions like Gaganyaan, Chandrayaan-3, and Aditya L-1 (sun).
In May 2021, the government approved the production linked incentive (PLI) scheme for manufacturing advanced chemistry cell (ACC) batteries at an estimated outlay of Rs. 18,100 crore (US$ 2.44 billion); this move is expected to attract domestic and foreign investments worth Rs. 45,000 crore (US$ 6.07 billion).
Minister for Finance & Corporate Affairs Ms Nirmala Sitharaman announced in the Union Budget of 2022-23 that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would issue Digital Rupee using blockchain and other technologies.
In the Union Budget of 2022-23, Railway got an investment of Rs. 2.38 lakh crore (US$ 31.88 billion) and over 400 new high-speed trains were announced. The concept of "One Station, One Product" was also introduced.
To boost competitiveness, Budget 2022-23 has announced reforming the 16-year-old Special Economic Zone (SEZ) act.
In June 2021, the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) announced that the investment limit for FPI (foreign portfolio investors) in the State Development Loans (SDLs) and government securities (G-secs) would persist unaffected at 2% and 6%, respectively, in FY22.
In November 2020, the Government of India announced Rs. 2.65 lakh crore (US$ 36 billion) stimulus package to generate job opportunities and provide liquidity support to various sectors such as tourism, aviation, construction, and housing. Also, India's cabinet approved the production-linked incentives (PLI) scheme to provide ~Rs. 2 trillion (US$ 27 billion) over five years to create jobs and boost production in the country.
Numerous foreign companies are setting up their facilities in India on account of various Government initiatives like Make in India and Digital India. Prime Minister of India Mr. Narendra Modi launched the Make in India initiative with an aim to boost the country's manufacturing sector and increase the purchasing power of an average Indian consumer, which would further drive demand and spur development, thus benefiting investors. The Government of India, under its Make in India initiative, is trying to boost the contribution made by the manufacturing sector with an aim to take it to 25% of the GDP from the current 17%. Besides, the government has also come up with the Digital India initiative, which focuses on three core components: the creation of digital infrastructure, delivering services digitally, and increasing digital literacy.
On January 29, 2022, the National Asset Reconstruction Company Ltd (NARCL) will acquire bad loans worth up to Rs. 50,000 crore (US$ 6.69 billion) about 15 accounts by March 31, 2022. India Debt Resolution Co. Ltd (IDRCL) will control the resolution process. This will clean up India's financial system and help fuel liquidity and boost the Indian economy.
National Bank for Financing Infrastructure and Development (NaBFID) is a bank that will provide non-recourse infrastructure financing and is expected to support projects from the first quarter of FY2022-23; it is expected to raise Rs. 4 lakh crore (US$ 53.58 billion) in the next three years.
By November 1, 2021, India and the United Kingdom hope to begin negotiations on a free trade agreement. The proposed FTA between these two countries is likely to unlock business opportunities and generate jobs. Both sides have renewed their commitment to boost trade in a manner that benefits all.
In August 2021, Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi announced an initiative to start a national mission to reach the US$ 400 billion merchandise export target by FY22.
In August 2021, Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi launched a digital payment solution, e-RUPI, a contactless and cashless instrument for digital payments.
In April 2021, Dr. Ahmed Abdul Rahman AlBanna, Ambassador of the UAE to India and Founding Patron of IFIICC, stated that trilateral trade between India, the UAE and Israel is expected to reach US$ 110 billion by 2030.
India is expected to attract investment of around US$ 100 billion in developing the oil and gas infrastructure during 2019-23.
The Government of India is expected to increase public health spending to 2.5% of the GDP by 2025.

Road Ahead

In the second quarter of FY 2022-23, the growth momentum of the first quarter was sustained, and high-frequency indicators (HFIs) performed well in July and August of 2022. India's comparatively strong position in the external sector reflects the country's generally positive outlook for economic growth and rising employment rates. India ranked fifth in foreign direct investment inflows among the developed and developing nations listed for the first quarter of 2022.

India's economic story during the first half of the current financial year highlighted the unwavering support the government gave to its capital expenditure, which, in FY 2022–23 (until August 2022), stood 46.8% higher than the same period last year. The ratio of revenue expenditure to capital outlay decreased from 6.4 in the previous year to 4.5 in the current year, signaling a clear change in favour of higher-quality spending. Stronger revenue generation as a result of improved tax compliance, increased profitability of the company, and increasing economic activity also contributed to rising capital spending levels.

Despite the continued global slowdown, India's exports climbed at the second highest rate this quarter. With a reduction in port congestion, supply networks are being restored. The CPI-C and WPI inflation reduction from April 2022 already reflects the impact. In August 2022, CPI-C inflation was 7.0%, down from 7.8% in April 2022. Similarly, WPI inflation has decreased from 15.4% in April 2022 to 12.4% in August 2022. With a proactive set of administrative actions by the government, flexible monetary policy, and a softening of global commodity prices and supply-chain bottlenecks, inflationary pressures in India look to be on the decline overall.