Introduction
Strong economic growth in the first quarter of FY23 helped India overcome the UK to become the fifth-largest economy after it recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic shock. Real GDP at constant prices (2011-12) in the first quarter of 2023–24 is estimated at Rs. 40.37 trillion (US$ 484.94 billion), showing a growth of 7.8% as compared to the first quarter of 2022-23 estimated at Rs. 37.44 trillion (US$ 449.74 billion). Given the release of pent-up demand and the widespread vaccination coverage, the contact-intensive services sector will probably be the main driver of development in 2022–2023. In 2023-24 (April-September), India’s service exports stood at US$ 164.89 billion. Furthermore, India’s overall exports (services and merchandise) in 2023-24 (April-September) were estimated at US$ 376.29 billion. Rising employment and substantially increasing private consumption, supported by rising consumer sentiment, will support GDP growth in the coming months.
Future capital spending of the government in the economy is expected to be supported by factors such as tax buoyancy, the streamlined tax system with low rates, a thorough assessment and rationalisation of the tariff structure, and the digitization of tax filing. In the medium run, increased capital spending on infrastructure and asset-building projects is set to increase growth multipliers, and with the revival in monsoon and the Kharif sowing, agriculture is also picking up momentum. The contact-based services sector has largely demonstrated promise to boost growth by unleashing the pent-up demand over the period of April-December 2022. The sector's success is being captured by a number of HFIs (High-Frequency Indicators) that are performing well, indicating the beginnings of a comeback.
India has emerged as the fastest-growing major economy in the world and is expected to be one of the top three economic powers in the world over the next 10-15 years, backed by its robust democracy and strong partnerships.
India's appeal as a destination for investments has grown stronger and more sustainable as a result of the current period of global unpredictability and volatility, and the record amounts of money raised by India-focused funds in 2022 are evidence of investor faith in the "Invest in India" narrative.
Market size
India’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices is estimated to be at Rs. 301.75 trillion (US$ 3.62 trillion) in 2023-24. Additionally, the Nominal GDP at current prices in Q1 of 2023-24 was Rs. 70.67 trillion (US$ 848.92 billion), as against Rs. 65.42 trillion (US$ 785.85 billion) in 2022-23, estimating a growth of 8%. With 115 unicorns valued at more than US$ 350 billion, as of February 2023, India presently has the third-largest unicorn base in the world. The government is also focusing on renewable sources by achieving 40% of its energy from non-fossil sources by 2030. India is committed to achieving the country's ambition of Net Zero Emissions by 2070 through a five-pronged strategy, ‘Panchamrit’. Moreover, India ranked 3rd in the renewable energy country attractive index.
According to the McKinsey Global Institute, India needs to boost its rate of employment growth and create 90 million non-farm jobs between 2023 to 2030 in order to increase productivity and economic growth. The net employment rate needs to grow by 1.5% per annum from 2023 to 2030 to achieve 8-8.5% GDP growth between same time period. India's current account deficit (CAD) decreases to US$ 9.2 billion in Q1 of 2023-24 from US$ 17.9 billion in Q1 of 2022–2023.
Exports fared remarkably well during the pandemic and aided recovery when all other growth engines were losing steam in terms of their contribution to GDP. Going forward, the contribution of merchandise exports may waver as several of India’s trade partners witness an economic slowdown. According to Mr. Piyush Goyal, Minister of Commerce and Industry, Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution and Textiles, Indian exports are expected to reach US$ 1 trillion by 2030.
Recent Developments
India is primarily a domestic demand-driven economy, with consumption and investments contributing to 70% of the economic activity. With an improvement in the economic scenario and the Indian economy recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic shock, several investments and developments have been made across various sectors of the economy. According to World Bank, India must continue to prioritise lowering inequality while also putting growth-oriented policies into place to boost the economy. In view of this, there have been some developments that have taken place in the recent past. Some of them are mentioned below.
- As of August 2023, India’s foreign exchange reserves stood at US$ 594.90 billion.
- In the first half of 2023-24, India saw a total of US$ 21 billion in PE-VC investments.
- Merchandise exports in September 2023 stood at US$ 34.47 billion, with total merchandise exports of US$ 211.40 billion during the period of April-September (2023-24).
- India was also named as the 48th most innovative country among the top 50 countries, securing 40th position out of 132 economies in the Global Innovation Index 2023. India rose from 81st position in 2015 to 40th position in 2023. India ranks 3rd position in the global number of scientific publications.
- PMI Services remained comfortably in the expansionary zone at 62.3 in the month of June 2023.
- In September 2023, the gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue collection stood at Rs.1,62,712 crore (US$ 19.54 billion), of which CGST is Rs. 29,818 crore (US$ 3.58 billion), SGST is Rs. 37,657 crore (US$ 4.52 billion), IGST is Rs. 83,623 crore (US$ 10.04 billion).
- Between April 2000–June 2023, cumulative FDI equity inflows to India stood at US$ 937.58 billion.
- In August 2023, the overall IIP (Index of Industrial Production) stood at 145.1. The Indices of Industrial Production for the mining, manufacturing and electricity sectors stood at 111.9, 143.5 and 220.5, respectively, in August 2023.
- According to data released by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MoSPI), India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation reached 5.02% in September 2023.
- Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) inflows between April-July (2023-24) were close to Rs. 80,500 crore (US$ 9.67 billion), while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) sold Rs. 4,500 crore (US$ 540.56 million) in the same period. As per depository data, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) invested Rs. 22,000 crore (US$ 2.67 billion) in India during the first week of July 2023.
- The wheat procurement during RMS 2023-24 (till May) was estimated to be 262 lakh metric tonnes (LMT) and the rice procured in KMS 2023-24 was 385 LMT. The combined stock position of wheat and rice in the Central Pool is over 579 LMT (Wheat 312 LMT and Rice 267 LMT).
Government Initiatives
Over the years, the Indian government has introduced many initiatives to strengthen the nation's economy. The Indian government has been effective in developing policies and programmes that are not only beneficial for citizens to improve their financial stability but also for the overall growth of the economy. Over recent decades, India's rapid economic growth has led to a substantial increase in its demand for exports. Besides this, a number of the government's flagship programmes, including Make in India, Start-up India, Digital India, the Smart City Mission, and the Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation, is aimed at creating immense opportunities in India. In this regard, some of the initiatives taken by the government to improve the economic condition of the country are mentioned below:
- On August 6th, 2023, Amrit Bharat Station Scheme was launched to transform and revitalize 1309 railway stations across the nation. This scheme envisages development of stations on a continuous basis with a long-term vision.
- On June 28th, 2023, the Ministry of Environment, Forests, and Climate Change introduced the ‘Draft Carbon Credit Trading Scheme, 2023’.
- From April 1st, 2023, Foreign Trade Policy 2023 was unveiled to create an enabling ecosystem to support the philosophy of ‘AtmaNirbhar Bharat’ and ‘Local goes Global’.
- In order to enhance India’s manufacturing capabilities by increasing investment and production in the sector, the government of India has introduced the Production Linked Incentive Scheme (PLI) for Pharmaceuticals.
- Prime Minister’s Development Initiative for North-East Region (PM-DevINE) was announced in the Union Budget 2022-23 with a financial outlay of Rs. 1,500 crore (US$ 182.35 million).
- Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi has inaugurated a new food security scheme for providing free food grains to Antodaya Ann Yojna (AAY) & Primary Household (PHH) beneficiaries, called Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Ann Yojana (PMGKAY) from January 1st, 2023.
- The Amrit Bharat Station scheme for Indian Railways envisages the development of stations on a continuous basis with a long-term vision, formulated on December 29th, 2022 by the Ministry of Railways.
- On October 7th, 2022, the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) launched Credit Guarantee Scheme for Start-ups (CGSS) aiming to provide credit guarantees up to a specified limit by start-ups, facilitated by Scheduled Commercial Banks, Non-Banking Financial Companies and Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) registered Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs).
- Telecom Technology Development Fund (TTDF) Scheme was launched in October 2022 by the Universal Service Obligation Fund (USOF), a body under the Department of Telecommunications. The objective is to fund R&D in rural-specific communication technology applications and form synergies among academia, start-ups, research institutes, and the industry to build and develop the telecom ecosystem.
- Home & Cooperation Minister Mr. Amit Shah laid the foundation stone and performed Bhoomi Pujan of Tanot Mandir Complex Project under Border Tourism Development Programme in Jaisalmer in September 2022.
- In August 2022, Mr. Narendra Singh Tomar, Minister of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare inaugurated four new facilities at the Central Arid Zone Research Institute (CAZRI), which has been rendering excellent services for more than 60 years under the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR).
- In August 2022, a Special Food Processing Fund of Rs. 2,000 crore (US$ 242.72 million) was set up with National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) to provide affordable credit for investments in setting up Mega Food Parks (MFP) as well as processing units in the MFPs.
- In July 2022, Deendayal Port Authority (DPA) announced plans to develop two Mega Cargo Handling Terminals on a Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) basis under Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Mode at an estimated cost of Rs. 5,963 crore (US$ 747.64 million).
- In July 2022, the Union Cabinet chaired by Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi, approved the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between India & Maldives. This MoU will provide a platform to tap the benefits of information technology for court digitization and can be a potential growth area for IT companies and start-ups in both countries.
- India and Namibia entered a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on wildlife conservation and sustainable biodiversity utilization on July 20th, 2022, for establishing the cheetah into the historical range in India.
- In July 2022, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) approved international trade settlements in Indian rupees (Rs.) in order to promote the growth of global trade with emphasis on exports from India and to support the increasing interest of the global trading community.
- The Agnipath Scheme aims to develop a young and skilled armed force backed by an advanced warfare technology scheme by providing youth with an opportunity to serve Indian Army for a 4-year period. It is introduced by the Government of India on June 14th, 2022.
- In June 2022, Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi inaugurated and laid the foundation stone of development projects worth Rs. 21,000 crore (US$ 2.63 billion) at Gujarat Gaurav Abhiyan at Vadodara.
- Mr. Rajnath Singh, Minister of Defence, launched 75 newly developed Artificial Intelligence (AI) products/technologies during the first-ever ‘AI in Defence’ (AIDef) symposium and exhibition organized by the Ministry of Defence in New Delhi on July 11th, 2022.
- In June 2022, Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi laid the foundation stone of 1,406 projects worth more than Rs. 80,000 crore (US$ 10.01 billion) at the ground-breaking ceremony of the UP Investors Summit in Lucknow. The Projects encompass diverse sectors like Agriculture and Allied industries, IT and Electronics, MSME, Manufacturing, Renewable Energy, Pharma, Tourism, Defence & Aerospace, and Handloom & Textiles.
- The Indian Institute of Spices Research (IISR) under the Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR) inked a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Lysterra LLC, a Russia-based company for the commercialization of bio capsule, an encapsulation technology for bio-fertilization on June 30th, 2022.
- As of April 2022, India signed 13 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with its trading partners including major trade agreements like the India-UAE Comprehensive Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and the India-Australia Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (IndAus ECTA).
- 'Mission Shakti' was applicable with effect from April 1st, 2022, aimed at strengthening interventions for women’s safety, security and empowerment.
- The Union Budget of 2022-23 was presented on February 1st , 2022, by the Minister for Finance & Corporate Affairs, Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman. The budget had four priorities PM GatiShakti, Inclusive Development, Productivity Enhancement and Investment, and Financing of Investments. In the Union Budget 2022-23, effective capital expenditure is expected to increase by 27% at Rs. 10.68 trillion (US$ 142.93 billion) to boost the economy. This will be 4.1% of the total Gross Domestic Production (GDP).
- Strengthening of Pharmaceutical Industry (SPI) was launched in March 2022 by the Ministry of Chemicals & Fertilisers to provide credit linked capital and interest subsidy for Technology Upgradation of MSME units in pharmaceutical sector, as well as support of up to Rs. 20 crore (US$ 2.4 million) each for common facilities including Research centre, testing labs and ETPs (Effluent Treatment Plant) in Pharma Clusters, to enhance the role of MSMEs.
- Under PM GatiShakti Master Plan, the National Highway Network will develop 25,000 km of new highways network, which will be worth Rs. 20,000 crore (US$ 2.67 billion). In 2022-23. Increased government expenditure is expected to attract private investments, with a production-linked incentive scheme providing excellent opportunities. Consistently proactive, graded, and measured policy support is anticipated to boost the Indian economy.
- In February 2022, The Ministry of Social Justice & Empowerment launched the Scheme for Economic Empowerment of Denotified/Nomadic/SemiNomadic tribal communities (DNTs) (SEED) to provide basic facilities like good quality coaching, and health insurance. livelihoods initiative at a community level and financial assistance for the construction of houses.
- In February 2022, Minister for Finance and Corporate Affairs Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman said that productivity linked incentive (PLI) schemes would be extended to 14 sectors to achieve the mission of AtmaNirbhar Bharat and create 60 lakh jobs with an additional production capacity of Rs. 30 trillion (US$ 401.49 billion) in the next five years.
- In the Union Budget of 2022-23, the government announced funding for the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme for domestic solar cells and module manufacturing of Rs. 24,000 crore (US$ 3.21 billion).
- In the Union Budget of 2022-23, the government announced a production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme for Bulk Drugs which was an investment of Rs. 2,500 crore (US$ 334.60 million).
- In the Union Budget of 2022, Minister for Finance & Corporate Affairs Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman announced that a scheme for design-led manufacturing in 5G would be launched as part of the PLI scheme.
- In September 2021, Union Cabinet approved major reforms in the telecom sector, which are expected to boost employment, growth, competition, and consumer interests. Key reforms include rationalization of adjusted gross revenue, rationalization of bank guarantees (BGs), and encouragement of spectrum sharing.
- In the Union Budget of 2022-23, the government has allocated Rs. 44,720 crore (US$ 5.98 billion) to Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL) for capital investments in the 4G spectrum.
- Minister for Finance & Corporate Affairs Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman allocated Rs. 650 crore (US$ 86.69 million) for the Deep Ocean mission that seeks to explore vast marine living and non-living resources. Department of Space (DoS) has got Rs. 13,700 crore (US$ 1.83 billion) in 2022-23 for several key space missions like Gaganyaan, Chandrayaan-3, and Aditya L-1 (sun).
- In May 2021, the government approved the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme for manufacturing advanced chemistry cell (ACC) batteries at an estimated outlay of Rs. 18,100 crore (US$ 2.44 billion); this move is expected to attract domestic and foreign investments worth Rs. 45,000 crore (US$ 6.07 billion).
- Minister for Finance & Corporate Affairs Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman announced in the Union Budget of 2022-23 that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would issue Digital Rupee using blockchain and other technologies.
- In the Union Budget of 2022-23, Railway got an investment of Rs. 2.38 trillion (US$ 31.88 billion) and over 400 new high-speed trains were announced. The concept of "One Station, One Product" was also introduced.
- To boost competitiveness, Budget 2022-23 has announced reforming the 16-year-old Special Economic Zone (SEZ) act.
- In June 2021, the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) announced that the investment limit for FPI (foreign portfolio investors) in the State Development Loans (SDLs) and government securities (G-secs) would persist unaffected at 2% and 6%, respectively, in FY22.
- In November 2020, the Government of India announced Rs. 2.65 trillion (US$ 36 billion) stimulus package to generate job opportunities and provide liquidity support to various sectors such as tourism, aviation, construction, and housing. Also, India's cabinet approved the production-linked incentives (PLI) scheme to provide ~Rs. 2 trillion (US$ 27 billion) over five years to create jobs and boost production in the country.
- Numerous foreign companies are setting up their facilities in India on account of various Government initiatives like Make in India and Digital India. Prime Minister of India Mr. Narendra Modi launched the Make in India initiative with an aim to boost the country's manufacturing sector and increase the purchasing power of the average Indian consumer, which would further drive demand and spur development, thus benefiting investors. The Government of India, under its Make in India initiative, is trying to boost the contribution made by the manufacturing sector with an aim to take it to 25% of the GDP from the current 17%. Besides, the government has also come up with the Digital India initiative, which focuses on three core components: the creation of digital infrastructure, delivering services digitally, and increasing digital literacy.
- On January 29th, 2022, the National Asset Reconstruction Company Ltd (NARCL) will acquire bad loans worth up to Rs. 50,000 crore (US$ 6.69 billion) about 15 accounts by March 31st, 2022. India Debt Resolution Co. Ltd (IDRCL) will control the resolution process. This will clean up India's financial system and help fuel liquidity and boost the Indian economy.
- National Bank for Financing Infrastructure and Development (NaBFID) is a bank that will provide non-recourse infrastructure financing and is expected to support projects from the first quarter of FY23; it is expected to raise Rs. 4 trillion (US$ 53.58 billion) in the next three years.
- By November 1st, 2021, India and the United Kingdom hope to begin negotiations on a free trade agreement. The proposed FTA between these two countries is likely to unlock business opportunities and generate jobs. Both sides have renewed their commitment to boost trade in a manner that benefits all.
- In August 2021, Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi announced an initiative to start a national mission to reach the US$ 400 billion merchandise export target by FY22.
- In August 2021, Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi launched a digital payment solution, e-RUPI, a contactless and cashless instrument for digital payments.
- In April 2021, Dr. Ahmed Abdul Rahman AlBanna, Ambassador of the UAE to India and Founding Patron of IFIICC, stated that trilateral trade between India, the UAE and Israel is expected to reach US$ 110 billion by 2030.
- India is expected to attract investment of around US$ 100 billion in developing the oil and gas infrastructure during 2019-23.
- The Government of India is expected to increase public health spending to 2.5% of the GDP by 2025.
Road Ahead
In the second quarter of FY24, the growth momentum of the first quarter was sustained, and high-frequency indicators (HFIs) performed well in July and August of 2023. India's comparatively strong position in the external sector reflects the country's generally positive outlook for economic growth and rising employment rates. India ranked 5th in foreign direct investment inflows among the developed and developing nations listed for the first quarter of 2022.
India's economic story during the first half of the current financial year highlighted the unwavering support the government gave to its capital expenditure, which, in 2023-24, stood 37.4% higher than the same period last year. In the budget of 2023-24, capital expenditure took lead by steeply increasing the capital expenditure outlay by 37.4 % in BE 2023-24 to Rs.10 lakh crore (US$ 120.12 billion) over Rs. 7.28 lakh crore (US$ 87.45 billion) in RE 2022-23. The ratio of revenue expenditure to capital outlay increased by 1.2% in the current year, signalling a clear change in favour of higher-quality spending. Stronger revenue generation because of improved tax compliance, increased profitability of the company, and increasing economic activity also contributed to rising capital spending levels.
Since India’s resilient growth despite the global pandemic, India's exports climbed at the second-highest rate with a year-over-year (YoY) growth of 8.39% in merchandise exports and a 29.82% growth in service exports till April 2023. With a reduction in port congestion, supply networks are being restored. The CPI-C inflation reduction from June 2022 already reflects the impact. In September 2023 (Provisional), CPI-C inflation was 5.02%, down from 7.01% in June 2022. With a proactive set of administrative actions by the government, flexible monetary policy, and a softening of global commodity prices and supply-chain bottlenecks, inflationary pressures in India look to be on the decline overall.
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