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    Economic Development Monthly Report: Analysis of Indian Economy | IBEF

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March 31, 2019

Second Advance Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), estimated the growth rate of GDP at constant (2011-12) market prices for FY 2018-19 at 7.0 per cent.

As per the quarterly estimates, the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) market prices stood at 6.6 per cent, during October-December 2018.

Two Wheelers sales grew by 6.95 per cent in April-February 2019 over April-February 2018.

Total Gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections grew to Rs 106,577 crore (US$ 15.26 billion) in March 2019, compared to Rs 92,167 crore (US$ 13.20 billion) in March 2018.

As per quarterly estimates, at constant 2011-12 prices, Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) grew 8.37 per cent year-on-year, Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) rose 6.48 per cent year-on-year and Gross Fixed Capital Formation increased 10.64 per cent year-on-year during October-December 2018.

Merchandise exports from India grew 9.06 per cent year-on-year to US$ 331.02 billion and merchandise import rose 8.99 per cent year-on-year to US$ 507.44 billion during April 2018-March 2019.

Fixed Investment Rate (Share of GFCF to GDP) stood at 28.9 per cent during FY19, compared to 28.6 per cent during the corresponding period of FY18.

Overall year-on-year growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) was 0.1 per cent in February 2019, which was at 6.9 per cent in February 2018. During April 2018–February 2019, IIP growth stood at 4.0 per cent year-on-year as compared to growth of 4.3 per cent year-on-year during April 2017–February 2018.

During February 2019, production of eight core infrastructure industries grew by 2.1 per cent year-on-year, as compared to 5.4 per cent growth in February 2018. The growth of eight core industries during April 2018 –February 2019 was 4.3 per cent, same as during the corresponding period of last year.

Nominal Repo Rate stood at 6.25 per cent as of February 6, 2019, compared to 6.00 per cent as of February 16, 2018.

Bank credit grew 14.5 per cent year-on-year as on February 1, 2019, compared to 10.7 per cent year-on-year as on April 12, 2018.

Fiscal Deficit is expected to ease to 3.4 per cent of GDP in 2018-19 (Revised Estimates) from 3.5 per cent in 2017-18.

The Rupee exchange rate (Re/US$) stood at 71.1540 at the end of February 2019, compared to 71.0333 at the end of January 2019. The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) (6-Currency Trade Based Weights with base year 2004-05) stood at 112.76 for February 2019, compared to 113.84 for January 2019.

Current Account Deficit stood at US$ 16.9 billion (2.5 per cent of GDP) during October-December 2018, compared to US$ 19.1 billion (2.9 per cent of GDP) during the preceding quarter.

At the end of December 2018, external debt was recorded at US$ 521.2 billion, compared to US$ 529.7 billion at the end of March 2018. Out of the total, long-term debt stood at US$ 417.3 billion, while the remaining US$ 103.9 billion was short-term debt.

Foreign exchange reserves stood at US$ 406.67 billion as on March 22, 2019, as compared to US$ 399.22 billion as on February 22, 2019.

Wholesale Price Inflation (WPI) increased to 3.18 per cent in March 2019 from 2.93 per cent in February 2019. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) as per new series (combined) rose to 2.86 per cent in March 2019 from 2.77 per cent in February 2019.

Yield (primary) on the 91-day Treasury Bill reached 6.31 per cent as on April 26, 2019, compared to 6.11 per cent as on April 26, 2018.

For the fortnight ended on February 15, 2019, Broad money supply (M3) grew by 10.9 per cent year-on-year, compared to 10.2 per cent year-on-year in the corresponding period of the previous year.

Gross Tax Revenue (GTR) collection grew by 7.89 per cent year-on-year to Rs 1,692,110 crore (US$ 218.73 billion) during April 2018-February 2019.

The growth of Gross Value Added (GVA) at constant (2011-12) basic prices for agriculture and allied sectors, industry sector and services sector are estimated at 2.7 per cent, 7.7 per cent and 7.4 per cent respectively for 2018-19.

Note: Conversion rate used as on April 30, 2019: Rs 1 = US$ 0.0143

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