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    Economic Development Monthly Report: Analysis of Indian Economy | IBEF

  • Indian Economic Development & Growth Report

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September 25, 2019

Last updated: March, 2020

Real GDP in 2019-20 is estimated to grow at 5.0 per cent (second advance estimates), lower than 6.1 per cent in 2018-19 (first revised estimates).

The real Gross Value Added (GVA) is estimated to grow at 4.9 per cent in 2019-20 (second advance estimates) as compared to 6.0 per cent in 2018-19 (first revised estimates).

The share of total final consumption (private and public consumption) in GDP at current prices in 2019-20 is estimated at 72.0 per cent, as compared to 70.4 per cent in 2018-19.

Merchandise exports and imports (in US$ terms) declined by 1.9 per cent and 8.1 per cent respectively in April-January 2019-20. Oil imports declined by 9.2 per cent and non-oil imports declined by 7.7 per cent in April-January 2019-20. During April-January 2019-20, merchandise trade deficit was US$ 133.3 billion, lower as compared to US$ 163.3 billion in April-January 2018-19.

The fixed investment rate (ratio of gross fixed capital formation to GDP) is estimated at 27.5 per cent in 2019-20, as compared to 29.0 per cent in 2018-19. The growth in real fixed investment is estimated to decline at 0.6 per cent in 2019-20, as compared to 9.8 per cent in 2018-19.

IIP registered a growth of 0.5 per cent in April-December 2019, as compared to 4.7 per cent during April-December 2018.

In January 2020, the production of eight core industries grew by 2.2 per cent, as compared to a growth of 1.5 per cent recorded in January 2018. Production of eight core industries grew by 0.6 per cent in April-January 2019 as compared to a growth of 4.4 per cent in the corresponding period of previous year.

Some Other Infrastructure Indicators

The number of telephone subscribers in India declined from 1175.9 million at end November 2019 to 1172.4 million at end December 2019. The overall tele-density in India was 88.6 at end December 2019; the urban tele-density was 156.3 and rural tele-density was 56.7 at end December 2019.

The traffic handled at major ports grew by 1.1 per cent to 585.7 million tonnes in April-January 2019-20, from 579.1 million tonnes in the corresponding period of the previous year.

As per the Central Electricity Authority, electricity generation grew by 2.0 per cent in January 2020 (YoY basis).

The total installed capacity for electricity generation was 3,68,690 MW at the end of January 2020, of which the share of thermal, hydro, renewable and nuclear sources was 62.4 per cent, 12.3 per cent, 23.4 per cent and 1.8 per cent respectively.

Growth of bank credit was 7.1 per cent (YoY basis) as on  January 31, 2020, as compared to 14.5 per cent in the corresponding fortnight end of the previous year.

The Budget Estimates of the fiscal deficit as per centage of GDP for 2019-20 have been set at 3.3 per cent, as compared to 3.4 per cent in 2018-19 (Provisional Actual (PA)).

The Rupee exchange rate (Re/US$) stood at 71.3138 at the end of January 2020, compared to 71.2328 at the end of December 2019.

India‘s current account deficit (CAD) was 0.9 per cent of GDP (US$ 6.3 billion) in Q2 of 2019-20, as compared to 2.9 per cent of GDP (US$ 19 billion) in Q2 of 2018-19.

Net foreign direct investment was US$ 7.4 billion in Q2 of 2019-20, almost same level as compared to Q2 of 2018-19.

The external debt stood at US$ 557.5 billion at end-September 2019, recording an increase of 0.5 per cent over the level at end-June 2019. Long-term debt was US$ 448.4 billion at end September 2019, while the remaining US$ 109.1 billion was short-term debt.  

Foreign exchange reserves stood at US$ 476.1 billion as on February 21, 2020, as compared to US$ 447.8 billion at end-March 2019.

WPI inflation increased to 3.1 per cent in January 2020 as compared to 2.6 per cent in December 2019. Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Combined inflation was 4.5 per cent in April-January 2019-20 as compared to 3.6 per cent in April-January 2019. Growth of money supply (M3) (on year on year basis) as on January 31, 2020 stood at 10.2 per cent, as compared to a growth rate of 10.4 per cent as recorded in the corresponding fortnight end in the previous year.

Note: Conversion rate used as on January 2020, Rs 1 = US$ 0.014022531

 


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