Indian Economic Development & Growth Report

Real GDP in 2019-20 was estimated to grow at 5.0 per cent (second advance estimates), lower than 6.1 per cent in 2018-19 (first revised estimates).

The real Gross Value Added (GVA) was estimated to grow at 4.9 per cent in 2019-20 (second advance estimates) as compared to 6.0 per cent in 2018-19 (first revised estimates).

The share of total final consumption (private and public consumption) in GDP at current prices in 2019-20 was estimated at 72.0 per cent as compared to 70.4 per cent in 2018-19.

Merchandise export and import (in US$ terms) declined by 4.8 per cent and 9.1 per cent, respectively, in 2019-20. Oil import declined by 8.2 per cent and non-oil import declined by 9.5 per cent in 2019-20. During 2019-20, merchandise trade deficit was US$ 152.9 billion, lower compared to US$ 184 billion in 2018-19.

The fixed investment rate (ratio of gross fixed capital formation to GDP) was estimated at 27.5 per cent in 2019-20 as compared to 29.0 per cent in 2018-19. The growth in real fixed investment was estimated to decline at 0.6 per cent in 2019-20 when compared to 9.8 per cent in 2018-19.

India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for 2019-20 stood at 129.2.

The combined Index of eight core industries stood at 137 in March 2020. Its cumulative growth during by 0.6 per cent in 2019-20.

Some Other Infrastructure Indicators

The number of telephone subscribers in India increased from 1172.4 million at the end December 2019 to 1177.02 million at the end of January 2020. The overall tele-density in India stood at 87.45 at the end January 2020 – urban tele-density was 144.16 and rural tele-density was 58.03 in this period.

The traffic handled at major ports grew 0.8 per cent to 704.8 million tonnes in 2019-20, up from 699.1 million tonnes in the corresponding period the previous year.

The total installed capacity for electricity generation was 370,106.46 MW at the end of April 2020, of which, the share of thermal, hydro, renewable and nuclear sources was 62.4 per cent, 12.3 per cent, 23.4 per cent and 1.8 per cent, respectively.

Growth of bank credit declined 6.7 per cent y-o-y as on April 24, 2020 as compared to 13 per cent as recorded in the corresponding fortnight end in the previous year.

The budget estimate of the fiscal deficit as per centage of GDP for 2019-20 was set at 3.3 per cent compared to 3.4 per cent in 2018-19 (Provisional Actual (PA)).

The Rupee exchange rate (Re/US$) stood at 76.2 at the end of April 2020 compared to 74.4 at the end of March 2020.

India’s current account deficit (CAD) was 0.2 per cent of GDP (US$ 6.3 billion) in Q3 of 2019-20 compared to 2.7 per cent of GDP (US$ 19 billion) in Q3 of 2018-19.

Net foreign direct investment was US$ 42.7 billion in 2019-20 viz-a-viz US$ 30.7 billion in 2018-19.

The external debt stood at US$ 563.9 billion at the end of December 2019, recording an increase of 1.2 per cent over the level at the end of September 2019. Long-term and short-term debt were US$ 457.1 billion and US$ 106.8 billion at the end September 2019, respectively.  

Foreign exchange reserves stood at US$ 481.1 billion as on May 11, 2020.

WPI inflation decreased to 1 per cent in March 2020 compared to being at 2.3 per cent in February 2020. WPI inflation declined to 1.7 per cent in 2019-20 from 4.3 per cent in 2018-19. Consumer Price Index (CPI) – combined inflation was 5.9 per cent in March 2020 compared to 6.6 per cent in February 2020. The annual consumer price inflation increased to 4.8 per cent in 2019-20 from 3.4 per cent in 2018-19. Growth of money supply (M3) (y-o-y basis) increased to 10.7 per cent as on April 24, 2020 compared to 10 per cent as recorded in the corresponding fortnight end in the previous year.

Note: Conversion rate used for April 2020, Rs 1 = US$ 0.013123