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    Economic Development Monthly Report: Analysis of Indian Economy | IBEF

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September 25, 2019

 

Last updated: January, 2020

  • Real GDP growth in second quarter (Q2) of 2019-20 is estimated at 4.5 per cent, lower than 5.0 per cent in first quarter (Q1) of 2019-20.
  • The growth of real Gross Value Added (GVA) is estimated at 4.3 per cent in Q2 of 2019-20. The share of total final consumption (private + public consumption) in GDP at current prices in Q2 of 2019-20 is estimated at 73.2 per cent, as compared to 70.7 per cent in Q2 of 2018-19.
  • Merchandise exports and imports (in US$ terms) declined by 2.2 per cent and 8.4 per cent respectively in April-October 2019. Oil imports declined by 12.2 per cent and non-oil imports declined by 6.9 per cent in April-October 2019. During April-October 2019, merchandise trade deficit was US$ 94.7 billion, lower as compared to US$ 116.2 billion in April-October 2018.
  • The fixed investment rate (ratio of gross fixed capital formation to GDP) is estimated at 27.8 per cent in Q2 of 2019- 20, as compared to 29.02 per cent in Q2 of 2018-19. The growth in real fixed investment is estimated at 1.0 per cent in Q2 of 2019-20, as compared to 11.8 per cent in Q2 of 2018-19.
  • IIP registered a growth of 1.3 per cent in April-September 2019, as compared to 5.2 per cent during April-September 2018.
  • In October 2019, the production of eight core industries declined by 5.8 per cent, as compared to a growth of 4.8 per cent recorded in October 2018. Production of eight core industries grew by 0.2 per cent in April-October 2019 as compared to 5.4 per cent in the corresponding period of previous year.

    Some Other Infrastructure Indicators

  • The number of telephone subscribers in India increased from 1191.8 million at end August 2019 to 1195.2 million at end September 2019. The overall tele-density in India was 90.5 at end September 2019; the urban tele-density was 160.3 and rural tele-density was 57.6 at end September 2019.
  • The traffic handled at major ports grew by 0.4 per cent to 405.4 million tonnes in April-October 2019, from 403.6 million tonnes in the corresponding period of the previous year.
  • As per the Central Electricity Authority, electricity generation declined by 12.9 per cent in October 2019 (YoY basis).
  • The total installed capacity for electricity generation was 3,64,170 MW at the end of October 2019, of which the share of thermal, hydro, renewable and nuclear sources was 63.0 per cent, 12.5 per cent, 22.7 per cent and 1.9 per cent respectively.
  • Growth of bank credit was 8.9 per cent (YoY basis) as on 25th October 2019, as compared to 14.6 per cent in the corresponding fortnight end of the previous year.
  • The Budget Estimates of the fiscal deficit as per centage of GDP for 2019-20 have been set at 3.3 per cent, as compared to 3.4 per cent in 2018-19 (Provisional Actual (PA)).
  • The Rupee exchange rate (Re/US$) stood at 71.0394 at the end of October 2019, compared to 71.3337 at the end of September 2019.
  • India ‘s current account deficit (CAD) was 2.0 per cent of GDP (US$ 14.3 billion) in Q1 of 2019-20, as compared to 2.3 per cent of GDP (US$ 15.8 billion) in Q1 of 2018-19.
  • Net foreign direct investment was US$ 13.9 billion in Q1 of 2019-20, higher as compared to US$ 9.6 billion in Q1 of 2018-19.
  • The external debt stood at US$ 557 billion at end-June 2019, recording an increase of 2.6 per cent over the level at end-March 2019. Long-term debt was US$ 447.7 billion at end June 2019, while the remaining US$ 109.7 billion was short-term debt.
  • Foreign exchange reserves stood at US$ 448.2 billion as on 15th November 2019, as compared to US$ 447.8 billion at end-March 2019.
  • WPI inflation declined to 0.2 per cent in October as compared to 0.3 per cent in September 2019. Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Combined inflation rose to 3.5 per cent in April-October 2019. Growth of money supply (M3) (on year on year basis) as on 25th October 2019 stood at 10.6 per cent, as compared to a growth rate of 10 per cent as recorded in the corresponding fortnight end in the previous year.
  • Gross tax revenue was Rs 6.6 lakh crore, recording a growth of 4.2 per cent.

Note: Conversion rate used as on September 2019, Re 1 = US$ 0.01407


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