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    Economic Development Monthly Report: Analysis of Indian Economy | IBEF

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September 25, 2019

 

Last updated: October, 2019

  • As per the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) of 2019-20, the growth of real GDP for Q1 of 2019-20 is estimated at 5 per cent.
  • The growth of real Gross Value Added (GVA) is estimated at 4.9 per cent in Q1 of 2019-20. The share of total final consumption in GDP at current prices in Q1 of 2019-20 is estimated at 70.1 per cent, as compared to 70.7 per cent in Q1 of 2018-19.
  • Merchandise exports and imports (in US$ terms) declined by 1.5 per cent and 5.7 per cent respectively in April-August 2019. Oil imports declined by 6.3 per cent and non-oil imports declined by 5.4 per cent in April-August 2019. During April-August 2019, merchandise trade deficit was US$ 72.9 billion, lower as compared to US$ 83.2 billion in April-August 2018.
  • The fixed investment rate (ratio of gross fixed capital formation to GDP) is estimated at 29.7 per cent in Q1 of 2019- 20, as compared to 30.0 per cent in Q1 of 2018-19. The growth in fixed investment is estimated at 4.0 per cent in Q1 of 2019-20, as compared to 13.3 per cent in Q1 of 2018-19.
  • The growth of IIP was 4.3 per cent in July 2019, as compared to 6.5 per cent recorded in July 2018. IIP registered a growth of 3.3 per cent in April-July 2019, as compared to 5.4 per cent during the April-July 2018.
  • In August 2019, the production of eight core industries declined by 0.5 per cent, as compared to a growth of 4.7 per cent recorded in August 2018. Production of eight core industries grew by 2.4 per cent in April-August 2019 as compared to 5.7 per cent in the corresponding period of previous year.

    Some Other Infrastructure Indicators

  • The number of telephone subscribers in India increased from 1186.6 million at end June 2019 to 1189.3 million at end July 2019. The overall tele-density in India was 90.2 at end July 2019; the urban tele-density was 161.1 and rural tele-density was 57 at end July 2019.
  • The traffic handled at major ports grew by 1.9 per cent to 293.8 million tonnes in April-August 2019, from 288.5 million tonnes in the corresponding period of the previous year.
  • As per the Central Electricity Authority, electricity generation grew by 5.5 per cent in July 2019 (YoY basis).
  • The total installed capacity for electricity generation was 3,60,456 MW at the end of July 2019, of which the share of thermal, hydro, renewable and nuclear sources was 63.2 per cent, 12.6 per cent, 22.4 per cent and 1.9 per cent respectively
  • Growth of bank credit was 10.2 per cent (YoY basis) as on 30th August 2019, as compared to 13.4 per cent in the corresponding fortnight end of the previous year.
  • The Budget Estimates of the fiscal deficit as per centage of GDP for 2019-20 have been set at 3.3 per cent, as compared to 3.4 per cent in 2018-19 (Provisional Actual (PA).
  • The Rupee exchange rate (Re/US$) stood at 71.1457 at the end of August 2019, compared to 68.8083 at the end of July 2019.
  • India ‘s current account deficit (CAD) was 2.0 per cent of GDP (US$ 14.3 billion) in Q1 of 2019-20, as compared to 2.3 per cent of GDP (US$ 15.8 billion) in Q1 of 2018-19.
  • Net foreign direct investment was US$ 13.9 billion in Q1 of 2019-20, higher as compared to US$ 9.6 billion in Q1 of 2018-19.
  • The external debt stood at US$ 557 billion at end-June 2019, recording an increase of 2.6 per cent over the level at end-March 2019. Long-term debt was US$ 447.7 billion at end June 2019, while the remaining US$ 109.7 billion was short-term debt.
  • Foreign exchange reserves stood at US$ 428.6 billion as on 20th September 2019, as compared to US$ 412.9 billion at end-March 2019.
  • WPI inflation remained unchanged at 1.1 per cent in August as compared to July 2019. Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Combined inflation 3.1 per cent in April-August 2019. Growth of money supply (M3) (on year on year basis) as on 30th August 2019 stood at 9.9 per cent, as compared to a growth rate of 10.3 per cent as recorded in the corresponding fortnight end in the previous year.
  • Gross tax revenue was Rs 5.4 lakh crore, recording a growth of 6.6 per cent.

Note: Conversion rate used as on August 2019, Re 1 = US$ 0.014056


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