The FMCG market in India is expected to increase at a CAGR of 14.9% to reach US$ 220 billion by 2025, from US$ 110 billion in 2020. The Indian FMCG industry grew by 16% in CY21 a 9-year high, despite nationwide lockdowns, supported by consumption-led growth and value expansion from higher product prices, particularly for staples. The rural market registered an increase of 14.6% in the same quarter and metro markets recorded positive growth after two quarters. Final consumption expenditure increased at a CAGR of 5.2% during 2015-20. According to Fitch Solutions, real household spending is projected to increase 9.1% YoY in 2021, after contracting >9.3% in 2020 due to economic impact of the pandemic. The FMCG sector's revenue growth will double from 5-6% in FY21 to 10-12% in FY22, according to CRISIL Ratings. Price increases across product categories will offset the impact of rising raw material prices, along with volume growth and resurgence in demand for discretionary items, are driving growth. The FMCG sector grew by 36.9% in the April-June quarter of 2021 despite lockdowns in various parts of the country.
Number of households shopping on modern-trade channel grew 29.15% YoY in the September quarter and shopping volume on the channel went up by 19.2% YoY.
In September 2021, rural consumption of FMCG increased 58.2% YoY; this is 2x more than the urban consumption (27.7%).
In the third quarter of FY20 in rural India, FMCG witnessed a double-digit growth recovery of 10.6% due to various government initiatives (such as packaged staples and hygiene categories); high agricultural produce, reverse migration, and a lower unemployment rate. Rise in rural consumption will drive the FMCG market. The Indian processed food market is projected to expand to US$ 470 billion by 2025, up from US$ 263 billion in 2019-20
FMCG giants such as Johnson & Johnson, Himalaya, Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Lakmé and other companies (that have dominated the Indian market for decades) are now competing with D2C-focused start-ups such as Mamaearth, The Moms Co., Bey Bee, Azah, Nua and Pee Safe. Market giants such as Revlon and Lotus took ~20 years to reach the Rs. 100 crore (US$ 13.4 million) revenue mark, while new-age D2C brands such as Mamaearth and Sugar took four and eight years, respectively, to achieve that milestone.
Companies with dedicated websites recorded an 88% YoY rise in consumer demand in 2020. Since then, more businesses have begun to adopt the D2C model, and India is now home to >800 D2C brands looking at a US$ 101 billion opportunity by 2025.
E-commerce companies reported sales worth US$ 9.2 billion across platforms in October and November (2021), driven by increased shopping during the festive season. With festive season sales, Flipkart Group emerged as the leader with a 62% market share.
Advertising volumes on television recorded healthy growth in the July-September quarter, registering 461 million seconds of advertising, which is the highest in 2021. FMCG continued to maintain its leadership position with 29% growth in ad volumes against the same period in 2019. Even the e-commerce sector showed a healthy 26% jump over 2020.