Economic Survey 2022-23

India's Medium-Term Growth Outlook

• Indian economy underwent wide-ranging structural and governance reforms that strengthened the economy's fundamentals by enhancing its overall efficiency during 2014-2022.
• With an underlying emphasis on improving the ease of living and doing business, the reforms after 2014 were based on the broad principles of creating public goods, adopting trust-based governance, co-partnering with the private sector for development, and improving agricultural productivity.
• The period of 2014-2022 also witnessed balance sheet stress caused by the credit boom in the previous years and one-off global shocks, that adversely impacted the key macroeconomic variables such as credit growth, capital formation, and hence economic growth during this period.
• This situation is analogous to the period 1998-2002 when transformative reforms undertaken by the government had lagged growth returns due to temporary shocks in the economy. Once these shocks faded, the structural reforms paid growth dividends from 2003.
• Similarly, the Indian economy is well placed to grow faster in the coming decade once the global shocks of the pandemic and the spike in commodity prices in 2022 fade away.
• With improved and healthier balance sheets of the banking, non-banking and corporate sectors, a fresh credit cycle has already begun, evident from the double-digit growth in bank credit over the past months.
• Indian economy has also started benefiting from the efficiency gains resulting from greater formalisation, higher financial inclusion, and economic opportunities created by digital technology-based economic reforms.
• India's growth outlook seems better than in the pre-pandemic years and the Indian economy is prepared to grow at its potential in the medium term.

Monetary Management and Financial Intermediation: A Good Year

• The RBI initiated its monetary tightening cycle in April 2022 and has since raised the repo rate by 225 bps, leading to moderation of surplus liquidity conditions.
• Cleaner balance sheets led to enhanced lending by financial institutions.
• The growth in credit offtake is expected to sustain, and combined with a pick-up in private capex, will usher in a virtuous investment cycle.
• Non-food credit offtake by scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) has been growing in double digits since April 2022.
• Credit disbursed by Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) has also been on the rise.
• The Gross Non-Performing Assets (GNPA) ratio of SCBs has fallen to a seven-year low of 5.0.
• The Capital-to-Risk Weighted Assets Ratio (CRAR) remains healthy at 16.0.
• The recovery rate for the SCBs through Insolvency and Bankruptcy (IBC) was highest in FY22 compared to other channels.

Social Infrastructure and Employment: Big Tent

• Social Sector witnessed significant increase in government spending.
• Central and State Government’s budgeted expenditure on health sector touched 2.1% of GDP in FY23 (BE) and 2.2% in FY22 (RE) against 1.6% in FY21.
• Social sector expenditure increases to Rs. 21.3 lakh crore (US$ 260.3 billion) in FY23 (BE) from Rs. 9.1 lakh crore (US$ 111.2 billion) in FY16.
• Survey highlights the findings of the 2022 report of the UNDP on Multidimensional Poverty Index which says that 41.5 crore people exit poverty in India between 2005-06 and 2019-20.
• The Aspirational Districts Programme has emerged as a template for good governance, especially in remote and difficult areas.
• eShram portal developed for creating a National database of unorganised workers, which is verified with Aadhaar. As on 31 December 2022, a total of over 28.5 crore unorganised workers have been registered on eShram portal.
• JAM (Jan-Dhan, Aadhaar, and Mobile) trinity, combined with the power of DBT, has brought the marginalised sections of society into the formal financial system, revolutionising the path of transparent and accountable governance by empowering the people.
• Aadhaar played a vital role in developing the Co-WIN platform and in the transparent administration of over 2 billion vaccine doses.
• Labour markets have recovered beyond pre-Covid levels, in both urban and rural areas, with unemployment rates falling from 5.8% in 2018-19 to 4.2% in 2020-21.
• The year FY22 saw improvement in Gross Enrolment Ratios (GER) in schools and improvement in gender parity. GER in the primary enrolment in class I to V as a percentage of the population in age 6 to 10 years - for girls as well as boys, have improved in FY22.
• Due to several steps taken by the government on health, out-of-pocket expenditure as a percentage of total health expenditure declined from 64.2% in FY14 to 48.2% in FY19.
• Infant Mortality Rate (IMR), Under Five mortality rate (U5MR) and neonatal Mortality Rate (NMR) have shown a steady decline.
• More than 220 crore COVID vaccine doses administered as on 06 January 2023.
• Nearly 22 crore beneficiaries have been verified under the Ayushman Bharat Scheme as on 04 January 2023. Over 1.54 lakh Health and Wellness Centres have been operationalized across the country under Ayushman Bharat.

Services: Source of Strength

• The services sector is expected to grow at 9.1% in FY23, as against 8.4% (YoY) in FY22.
• Robust expansion in PMI services, indicative of service sector activity, observed since July 2022.
• India was among the top ten services exporting countries in 2021, with its share in world commercial services exports increasing from 3% in 2015 to 4% in 2021.
• India’s services exports remained resilient during the Covid-19 pandemic and amid geopolitical uncertainties driven by higher demand for digital support, cloud services, and infrastructure modernization.
• Credit to services sector has grown by over 16% since July 2022.
• US$ 7.1 billion FDI equity inflows in the services sector in FY22.
• Contact-intensive services are set to reclaim pre-pandemic level growth rates in FY23.
• Sustained growth in the real estate sector is taking housing sales to pre-pandemic levels, with a 50% rise between 2021 and 2022.
• Hotel occupancy rate has improved from 30-32% in April 2021 to 68-70% in November 2022.
• Tourism sector is showing signs of revival, with foreign tourist arrivals in India in FY23 growing month-on-month with the resumption of scheduled international flights and easing of Covid-19 regulations.
• Digital platforms are transforming India’s financial services.
• India’s e-commerce market is projected to grow at 18% annually through 2025.