India to cross Brazil & Russia; emerge as second largest BRIC after China: BofA-ML
New Delhi: Stating that India's economy has bottomed out, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofA-ML) in its latest report titled 'India's GDP: In 6.9th heaven!' says, "We expect India to cross Brazil and Russia in GDP this year to emerge as the second largest BRIC after China."
Indranil Sen Gupta, India Economist at BofA-ML says, "The Indian government has revised FY14 growth up to 6.9% from 4.7% after improving corporate coverage on rebasing GDP to 2011-12 from 2004-05. Pronab Sen, Chairman, National Statistical Commission, has long maintained that the 2004-05 GDP data was under-estimating industrial growth. Quarterly data will be released on February 9."
"Against this backdrop, we are now tracking FY15E GDP growth at 6.6% (earlier 5.5%). This supports our India bottoming out view. At the same time, we will firm up our growth forecasts after release of quarterly data on February 9," he adds.
According to BofA-ML, the new GDP series has captured the changing structure of the Indian economy. "The share of manufacturing has increased to 15.8% from 11.9% in the 2004-05 series.
"FY14 growth has accelerated to 6.9% in the 2010-11 series from 4.7% in the 2004-05 series. This growth has been driven by higher growth in manufacturing, mining and non-financial services relative to 2004-05 base year series," the bank says.
At the same time, share of trade services is down to 10.9% from 15.2% in the 2004-05 series," says BofA-ML. "Except real estate and construction, the share of all other services has also fallen in the new series. The share of agriculture has increased marginally in the new series to 17.2% from 16.8%," it adds.
"There is no significant change in the structure of GDP on the demand side. Savings and investment has slowed across the old and new series," the bank observes.
Disclaimer: This information has been collected through secondary research and IBEF is not responsible for any errors in the same.