Ecommerce
India's e-commerce market is expected to reach US$ 64 billion by 2020.

E-commerce Industry in India

Latest update: June, 2018

  • The Indian e-commerce industry has been on an upward growth trajectory and is expected to surpass the US to become the second largest e-commerce market in the world by 2034.
  • The e-commerce market is expected to reach US$ 64 billion by 2020 and US$ 200 billion by 2026 from US$ 38.5 billion as of 2017.
  • With growing internet penetration, internet users in India are expected to increase from 481 million as of December 2017 to 829 million by 2021.
  • Rising internet penetration is expected to lead to growth in ecommerce.
  • India’s internet economy is expected to double from US$125 billion as of April 2017 to US$ 250 billion by 2020, majorly backed by ecommerce.
Growth

Notes: CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate,. F-forecast
Source: Media sources, Aranca Research

  • Internet penetration in India grew from just 4 per cent in 2007 to 35.03 per cent in 2017, registering a CAGR of 24.23 per cent between 2007 and 2017.
  • As of December 2017, internet penetration in India’s urban areas stood at 64.84 per cent and 20.26 per cent in the rural areas.
  • Urban India with an estimated population of 444 million as per 2011 census, already has 295 million using the internet as of December 2017.
  • Rural India, with an estimated population of 906 million as per 2011 census, has 186 million internet users as of December 2017. There is therefore a great opportunity for increasing penetration in the rural areas.
  • Analysis of ‘Daily Users’ reveal that both in Urban and Rural India, the younger generations are the most prolific users of internet.
  • Rising internet penetration is expected to drive ecommerce growth in India.
Growth

Source: Economic Times, Live Mint, Aranca Research

Last Updated: June, 2018

Introduction

The e-commerce has transformed the way business is done in India. The Indian e-commerce market is expected to grow to US$ 200 billion by 2026 from US$ 38.5 billion as of 2017Much growth of the industry has been triggered by increasing internet and smartphone penetration. The ongoing digital transformation in the country is expected to increase India’s total internet user base to 829 million by 2021 from 445.96 million in2017. India’s internet economy is expected to double from US$125 billion as of April 2017 to US$ 250 billion by 2020, majorly backed by ecommerce. India’s E-commerce revenue is expected to jump from US$ 39 billion in 2017 to US$ 120 billion in 2020, growing at an annual rate of 51 per cent, the highest in the world.

Market Size

Propelled by rising smartphone penetration, the launch of 4G networks and increasing consumer wealth, the Indian e-commerce market is expected to grow to US$ 200 billion by 2026 from US$ 38.5 billion in 2017. India's ecommerce industry's sales rose 40 per cent year-on-year to reach Rs 9,000 crore (US$ 1.5 billion) during the five-day sale period ending September 24, 2017, backed by huge deals and discounts offered by the major ecommerce companies. ^

Online retail sales in India are expected to grow by 31 per cent to touch US$ 32.70 billion, led by Flipkart, Amazon India and Paytm Mall.

Investments/ Developments

Some of the major developments in the Indian e-commerce sector are as follows:

  • Flipkart, after getting acquired by Walmart for US$ 16 billion, is expected to launch more offline retail stores in India to promote private labels in segments such as fashion and electronics.
  • Paytm has launched its bank - Paytm Payment Bank. Paytm bank is India's first bank with zero charges on online transactions, no minimum balance requirement and free virtual debit card
  • E-commerce industry in India witnessed 21 private equity and venture capital deals worth US$ 2.1 billion in 2017 and six deals worth US$ 226 million in January-April 2018

Government initiatives

Since 2014, the Government of India has announced various initiatives namely, Digital India, Make in India, Start-up India, Skill India and Innovation Fund. The timely and effective implementation of such programs will likely support the e-commerce growth in the country. Some of the major initiatives taken by the government to promote the e-commerce sector in India are as follows:

  • Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has decided to allow "inter-operability" among Prepaid Payment Instruments (PPIs) such as digital wallets, prepaid cash coupons and prepaid telephone top-up cards. RBI has also instructed banks and companies to make all know-your-customer (KYC)-compliant prepaid payment instruments (PPIs), like mobile wallets, interoperable amongst themselves via Unified Payments Interface (UPI). The interoperability is expected by June 2018.
  • The Government of India has distributed rewards worth around Rs 153.5 crore (US$ 23.8 million) to 1 million customers for embracing digital payments, under the Lucky Grahak Yojana and Digi-Dhan Vyapar Yojana.
  • The Government of India launched an e-commerce portal called TRIFED and an m-commerce portal called ‘Tribes India’ which will enable 55,000 tribal artisans get access to international markets.
  • In order to increase the participation of foreign players in the e-commerce field, the Indian Government hiked the limit of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the E-commerce marketplace model for up to 100 per cent (in B2B models).

Road Ahead

The e-commerce industry been directly impacting the micro, small & medium enterprises (MSME) in India by providing means of financing, technology and training and has a favourable cascading effect on other industries as well. The Indian e-commerce industry has been on an upward growth trajectory and is expected to surpass the US to become the second largest e-commerce market in the world by 2034. Technology enabled innovations like digital payments, hyper-local logistics, analytics driven customer engagement and digital advertisements will likely support the growth in the sector. With the increase in the number of electronic payment gateways and mobile wallets, it is expected that by the year 2020, cashless transaction will constitute 55 per cent of the online sales. The growth in e-commerce sector will also boost employment, increase revenues from export, increase tax collection by ex-chequers, and provide better products and services to customers in the long-term.

Notes: ^ - as per RedSeer Consulting

Disclaimer: This information has been collected through secondary research and IBEF is not responsible for any errors in the same.

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