The Indian E-commerce industry has been on an upward growth trajectory and is expected to surpass the US to become the second-largest e-commerce market in the world by 2034. India’s e-commerce sector is expected to reach US$ 111.40 billion by 2025 from US$ 46.20 billion in 2020, growing at a 19.24% CAGR, with grocery and fashion/apparel likely to be the key drivers of incremental growth. The Indian online grocery market is estimated to reach US$ 26.93 billion in 2027 from US$ 3.95 billion in FY21, expanding at a CAGR of 33%. By 2021, total e-commerce sales are expected to reach US$ 67-84 billion from the US$ 52.57 billion recorded in 2020.
For the 2021 festive season, Indian e-commerce platforms generated sales worth US$ 9.2 billion gross GMV (Gross Merchandise Value), a 23% increase from last year’s US$ 7.4 billion.
The Indian e-commerce sector is ranked 9th in cross-border growth in the world, according to the Payoneer report. Indian e-commerce is projected to increase from 4% of the total food and grocery, apparel and consumer electronics retail trade in 2020 to 8% by 2025. As of November 2022, the GeM portal has served 12.28 million orders worth Rs. 334,933 crores (US$ 40.97 billion) from 5.44 million registered sellers and service providers for 62,247 buyer organisations.
India’s social commerce has the potential to expand to US$ 16–20 billion in FY25, at a CAGR of 55-60% with a potentially monumental jump to US$ 70 billion by 2030, owing to high mobile usage. India's e-commerce order volume increased by 36% in the last quarter of 2020, with the personal care, beauty & wellness (PCB&W) segment being the largest beneficiary. Driven by the beauty and personal care (BPC), India's live commerce market is expected to reach a gross merchandise value (GMV) of US$ 4-5 billion by 2025.
Huge investments from global players—such as Facebook, which is investing in Reliance Jio—are being recorded in the e-commerce market. Google also reported its first investment worth US$ 4.5 billion in Jio Platforms. This deal was followed by the purchase of Future Group by Reliance Retail, expanding the presence of the Ambani Group in the e-commerce space.
Much of the growth for the industry has been triggered by an increase in internet and smartphone penetration. The number of internet connections in 2021 increased significantly to 830 million, driven by the ‘Digital India’ programme. Out of the total internet connections, ~55% of connections were in urban areas, of which 97% of connections were wireless.
Online penetration of retail is expected to reach 10.7% by 2024 compared with 4.7% in 2019. Moreover, online shoppers in India are expected to reach 220 million by 2025. According to a report published by IAMAI and Kantar Research, India’s internet users are expected to reach 900 million by 2025 from ~622 million internet users in 2020, increasing at a CAGR of 45% until 2025.
India’s overall smartphone market grew by 7% in 2021 with Samsung capturing the top position with a market share of 17% 2021. The number of smartphone users in India is expected to reach 887.4 million by 2030. India has the highest data consumption rate worldwide at 14.1 GB of data per person a month. By 2025, India will be home to 650 million users who consume short-form videos
The Government of India's policies and regulatory frameworks such as 100% Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in B2B E-commerce and 100% FDI under automatic route under the marketplace model of B2C E-commerce are expected to further propel growth in the sector. As per the new FDI policy, online entities through foreign investment cannot offer the products which are sold by retailers in which they hold an equity stake.
Through its Digital India campaign, the Government of India is aiming to create a trillion-dollar online economy by 2025. It has formed a new steering committee that will look after the development of a government-based e-commerce platform. The new committee, set up by the Commerce Ministry, will provide oversight on the policy for the Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC), which is an e-commerce platform that the government is backing for the development. The ONDC will serve as the infrastructure for setting up the final storefront, which will be similar to Flipkart and Amazon.