India’s e-commerce market projected to reach US$ 345 billion by 2030; dark stores expected to triple
- IBEF
- September 3, 2026
India’s e-commerce market is projected to nearly triple from Rs. 10.56 lakh crore (US$ 125 billion) in 2024 to Rs. 32.82 lakh crore (US$ 345 billion) by 2030, driven by the rapid expansion of quick commerce and increasing integration of artificial intelligence (AI), according to Infisum’s Smart Growth in a Fast Market report. The sector is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% through 2030. Quick commerce is projected to emerge as the fastest-growing segment, reaching an estimated Rs. 6.18-6.66 lakh crore (US$ 65-70 billion) by 2030 and contributing 45-50% of incremental e-retail growth over the next five years. To support growing demand for rapid deliveries, India’s dark store network is expected to nearly triple from 2,525 stores in 2025 to around 7,500 by 2030. Blinkit currently leads the quick commerce segment with a 44% market share and processed 900 million orders in FY26, followed by Zepto and Swiggy Instamart with market shares of 25% and 20%, respectively.
The expansion of India’s digital commerce ecosystem is also being supported by changing consumer behaviour and increasing adoption beyond metropolitan cities. Gen Z, which already accounts for nearly one-third of online shoppers, is expected to become India’s largest digital spending cohort by 2030, while 66% of new direct-to-consumer (D2C) orders are now originating from Tier II and Tier III cities. By the end of the decade, e-commerce is projected to account for 10-12% of India’s total retail spending, contribute around 2.5% to the national GDP and serve an estimated 420-440 million online shoppers. AI and machine learning are expected to improve retail productivity by 35-37% by 2030, with technologies such as conversational commerce, AI-powered shopping assistants and virtual try-ons transforming consumer discovery and purchasing experiences. The continued growth of quick commerce, digital technologies and online consumption is expected to further strengthen India’s position as one of the world’s fastest-growing digital retail markets.
Disclaimer: This information has been collected through secondary research and IBEF is not responsible for any errors in the same.
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