India's e-retail market set to reach Rs. 16,27,540 crore (US$ 190 billion) gross merchandise value (GMV) by 2030: Bain report

India’s e-retail market is projected to reach Rs. 14,56,220 – 16,27,540 crore (US$ 170 – US$ 190 billion) in gross merchandise value (GMV) by 2030, driven by an expanding shopper base and innovative business models, according to a report by Bain & Company and Flipkart. India, currently the world's second-largest e-retail market, had over 270 million online shoppers in 2024. The sector, valued at Rs. 5,13,960 crore (US$ 60 billion), experienced a slowdown in growth to 10–12% in 2024 from over 20% in previous years due to macroeconomic challenges affecting consumer spending. However, with India’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP) expected to surpass Rs. 2,99,824 – 3,42,656 (US$ 3,500 – US$ 4,000) by 2030—an inflection point for global e-commerce markets—the sector is anticipated to exceed 18% annual growth. 

Categories such as grocery, lifestyle, and general merchandise are expected to contribute nearly 70% of incremental e-retail growth by 2030, with penetration levels rising two to four times. Quick commerce (Q-commerce), which currently accounts for around 10% of total e-retail GMV and 70–75% of e-grocery GMV, is forecast to grow at over 40% annually. Expansion beyond groceries into new categories and cities has boosted profitability through larger basket sizes and reduced logistics costs. Notably, 60% of new online shoppers and 45% of orders since 2020 have originated from Tier-III and smaller cities, with seller participation rising from these regions. Additionally, trend-first commerce, particularly in fashion, is projected to exceed 50% online penetration by 2028, while hyper-value commerce catering to lower-middle-income consumers has expanded its GMV share from 5% in 2021 to 12–15% in 2024. The rise of these models is reshaping India’s retail landscape, creating new opportunities for brands and retailers. 

Disclaimer: This information has been collected through secondary research and IBEF is not responsible for any errors in the same.