India's iron-ore, coking coal, Potash demand to rise on robust economic growth: BHP

India is poised for a sharp increase in demand for iron ore, coking coal, and potash, driven by accelerating infrastructure investment and an expanding manufacturing sector, according to BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook. The report projects India’s annual steel demand to quadruple over the next 25 years, directly boosting the requirement for steelmaking raw materials. BHP notes that India is expected to increasingly act as an opportunistic importer of iron ore, particularly during periods of domestic supply disruption, despite having exported an average of 30 million tonnes per annum over the past nine years. The outlook further highlights that global mineral markets will face varying dynamics over the next year: refined copper, uranium, and potash are expected to remain roughly balanced, while steelmaking raw materials and nickel are likely to be in surplus. Strong domestic demand, favourable demographics, and rising investments position India as the fastest-growing major economy, with its steel production growth compensating for anticipated declines in China’s output in the post-plateau period.

Potash demand in India has surged alongside global trends, with benchmark prices rising over H1 CY25 due to strong demand and good affordability. New contracts were signed for India at Rs. 30,379 (US$ 349) per tonne, up around 25% from the previous year, while imports grew over 20% annually in the first five months of CY25. These trends indicate India’s emerging prominence as a key driver of global steel and mineral demand. BHP observes that India, together with other parts of developing Asia, is entering a long-term structural growth phase, underpinned by regional trade integration and domestic consumption. As infrastructure spending and manufacturing continue to expand, India’s appetite for critical raw materials like iron ore, coking coal, and potash is set to play a pivotal role in shaping both regional and global commodity markets over the coming decades.

Disclaimer: This information has been collected through secondary research and IBEF is not responsible for any errors in the same.