India’s merchandise exports forecast to reach Rs. 10,81,642 crore (US$ 124.8 billion) in Q4FY25: Exim Bank
- IBEF
- February 17, 2025
India's merchandise exports are projected to reach Rs. 10,81,642 crore (US$ 124.8 billion) in Q4 FY25, reflecting a 3.64% YoY increase, per estimates from the Export-Import Bank of India. Non-oil exports are anticipated to rise by 11.34% to Rs. 9,47,303 crore (US$ 109.3 billion). In comparison, non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are expected to grow by 10.1% to Rs. 8,53,700 crore (US$ 98.5 billion). These positive trends are expected to carry over into Q1 FY26. However, risks such as trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and global economic fragmentation persist. For the full fiscal year, total merchandise exports are projected at Rs. 38,69,816 crore (US$ 446.5 billion), a 2.2% increase compared to FY23. Non-oil exports are expected to be around Rs. 33,10,794 crore (US$ 382 billion), with non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports reaching Rs. 30,33,450 crore (US$ 350 billion).
India's exports have not yet recovered to their FY23 peak of Rs. 38,45,721 crore (US$ 443.72 billion), falling to Rs. 37,53,591 crore (US$ 433.09 billion) in FY24. However, the latest projections suggest a recovery driven by strong manufacturing performance, agricultural resilience, and improving global demand despite ongoing challenges. In December 2024, India's merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a three-month low of Rs. 1,90,154 crore (US$ 21.94 billion) as higher exports helped offset import pressures. This marked a decline from November's deficit of Rs. 2,84,624 crore (US$ 32.84 billion). A Union Bank of India report indicates the deficit may have narrowed to Rs. 1,80,967 crore (US$ 20.88 billion) in January 2025 due to a slowdown in gold imports following the festive and wedding season. Cumulative exports for April-December 2024 increased by 1.6% to Rs. 27,88,261 crore (US$ 321.71 billion), led by electronics, engineering goods, rice, garments, and handloom products.
Disclaimer: This information has been collected through secondary research and IBEF is not responsible for any errors in the same.
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