India's retail inflation eases to 3.16% in April; lowest since July 2019

India's retail inflation for April 2025 dropped to its lowest level since July 2019, with the YoY Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded at 3.16%, according to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. This marks a decline of 0.18 percentage points from March’s 3.34%, continuing the trend of easing inflation. CPI-based inflation has remained below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) medium-term target of 4% for three consecutive months. The decline in food prices, driven by a robust harvest despite extreme heatwaves, has contributed significantly to this reduction, as food items make up nearly half of the consumer price basket.

The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) showed a sharp drop in food inflation to 1.78% in April, the lowest since October 2021. This was due to a fall in prices of key items such as vegetables, pulses, fruits, meat, fish, cereals, and personal care products. Rural India saw a dip in inflation to 2.92% from 3.25% in March, while urban areas experienced a slight reduction to 3.36%. Regionally, Kerala had the highest inflation at 5.94%, while Telangana recorded the lowest at 1.26%. The RBI has forecast CPI-based inflation for FY26 at 4%, with Q1 FY26 expected to see inflation dip to 3.6%, revised down from the earlier estimate of 4.5%. The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) recently cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6%, shifting its stance to accommodative, indicating room for further rate reductions. The next CPI data for May will be released on June 12, 2025.

Disclaimer: This information has been collected through secondary research and IBEF is not responsible for any errors in the same.