India's retail market to hit Rs. 1,37,28,000 crore (US$ 1.6 trillion) by 2030, led by smaller players
- IBEF
- March 28, 2025
India's retail market is projected to reach Rs. 1,37,28,000 crore (US$ 1.6 trillion) by 2030, with organised retailers expected to capture over 35% of the total market, exceeding Rs. 51,48,000 crore (US$ 600 billion). Discretionary purchases will drive this growth, while essential goods will continue to dominate consumer spending, according to a report by Redseer Strategy Consultants. However, the supply side remains highly fragmented, with smaller, regional, and unbranded brands expected to make up over 70% of the market. Only around 350 brands in India have surpassed Rs. 858 crore (US$ 100 million) in revenue, compared to approximately 2,800 brands in China.
The high level of fragmentation in India's retail sector is attributed to three key factors: regional preferences, price sensitivity, and complex supply chains. Regional preferences result in localised consumption patterns, with significant variations in preferences for food, apparel, jewellery, and home decor across different states and cities. Many consumers prioritise affordability, favouring smaller transactions over bulk purchases. The presence of multiple unorganised intermediaries at sourcing and distribution levels has made supply chain management more challenging. General trade, including local kirana stores and small retailers, continues to thrive due to their hyper-local focus and accessibility. However, it faces structural challenges such as irregular pricing and inconsistent availability. Organised retail, including supermarkets and retail chains, is expanding fast and is expected to exceed Rs. 51,48,000 crore (US$ 600 billion) in value by 2030. The market is shifting towards organised distribution, with multiple structured retail models evolving to meet the demands of India's diverse consumer base.
Disclaimer: This information has been collected through secondary research and IBEF is not responsible for any errors in the same.
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