India's steel demand to triple by 2050 as China's share contracts: Wood Mackenzie

India is set to become a major driver of global steel demand over the coming decades as China’s dominance declines, according to research firm Wood Mackenzie. China, which accounted for 49% of global steel consumption in 2024, is projected to see demand fall by five to seven million tonnes (MT) annually over the next decade, reducing its share to 31% by 2050. In contrast, India’s steel demand is expected to nearly triple, lifting its share from 8% in 2024 to 21% by mid-century. This growth will be underpinned by strong government investments in transport corridors, renewable energy, and urban development, as well as rising demand from the automobile and machinery sectors.
India recorded 8% steel demand growth in 2024 and is forecast to expand by more than 7% in 2025, before settling into long-term growth of 4-5% annually. Southeast Asia is also strengthening its position, with steel demand projected to double its global share from 5% to 10% by 2050, led by Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia. Meanwhile, global steel trade patterns are shifting as protectionist policies and carbon taxes reduce China’s export dominance, driving regionalisation. Wood Mackenzie expects only 12% of global steel output to be traded in the long term, down from 25% currently, positioning India and Southeast Asia as key regional growth centres in the evolving global steel landscape.

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