India shines as bright spot for global steel industry, says Jefferies Report

India is emerging as a strong growth market for steel, standing out as the only large country to report meaningful volume growth between 2019 and 2024, with output rising by a robust 33% while global steel production declined by 1%, according to Jefferies. The report highlights that India is among the few countries showing consistent volume growth across major commodities such as carbon steel, stainless steel, coal, and aluminium. Over the past 15 years, carbon and stainless steel consumption in India has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7-8%, surpassing the country’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. Looking ahead, Jefferies projects an 8-10% volume CAGR for Indian steel companies from FY25 to FY27, supported by rising power demand driving coal consumption and sustained growth in aluminium demand.
However, the Indian steel market experienced pricing pressure in H2 2024 due to falling Chinese steel prices and increased imports, causing domestic hot-rolled coil steel prices to fall by 15%. In response, the Indian government imposed a 12% safeguard duty on flat steel imports in April 2025, valid for 200 days, which has led to a rebound in steel prices, rising 14% year-to-date to Rs. 53,500 (US$ 625.20) per tonne, now 5% above import costs. Jefferies forecasts steel prices to average between Rs. 52,000 (US$ 613.52) and Rs. 53,000 (US$ 619.36) in FY26 and FY27, slightly below current spot prices. Overall, the outlook for Indian steel companies remains positive, with India continuing to drive global demand in a generally slow-moving commodities market.

Disclaimer: This information has been collected through secondary research and IBEF is not responsible for any errors in the same.