India will be 3rd-largest economy by 2050: Lancet

After China and the US, India will become the world's third largest economy by 2050, a report published in Lancet said. When India was the seventh largest economy, the paper took 2017 as the base year. It said India will move towards being by 2030 the fourth largest economy and by 2050 the third largest. Now, India is the world's fifth largest economy.

The research published in the medical journal reported that, in 2100, India would hold the same role. The result was obtained by converting the countries' working-age population into GDP scenarios.

Although there would be a big decrease in the working-age population in China and India, the paper said, the latter would continue to hold the top spot. In countries like Nigeria, there will be a rise in the working-age population. By 2100, India, followed by Nigeria, China, and the USA, was forecast to still have the world's largest working-age population. Despite fertility rates lower than the replacement level, immigration retained the US workforce in our reference scenario, it said.

Owing to a rise in immigration, countries such as Australia and Israel will increase in global rankings by GDP. Japan, which is also expected to see a sharp decrease in the working-age population, will remain the world's fourth-largest economy by 2100.

The paper claimed that the rate of decline in fertility and slow population growth would be increased by access to contraceptives and continuing trends in female educational achievement. "In many countries, including China and India, a sustained TFR (total fertility rate) lower than the replacement level will have economic, social, environmental and geopolitical implications. Policy options would be critical in the years to come to adjust to continued low fertility, while preserving and improving female reproductive health."

India has comparable aspirations, too. By 2025, the Modi government plans to put India's economy to $5 trillion. The coronavirus pandemic and the resulting lockdown, however, have thrown a spanner into the works. India was facing an economic downturn well before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Disclaimer: This information has been collected through secondary research and IBEF is not responsible for any errors in the same.