India is the second-largest cement producer in the world and accounted for over 8% of the global installed capacity. Of the total capacity, 98% lies with the private sector and the rest with the public sector. The top 20 companies account for around 70% of the total cement production in India. As India has a high quantity and quality of limestone deposits throughout the country, the cement industry promises huge potential for growth.
In 2022, the market size of India’s cement industry reached 3.64 billion tonnes and is expected to touch 4.83 billion tonnes by 2028, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.94% during 2023-28. India's cement production is expected to increase at a CAGR of 5.65% between 2016-22, driven by demands in roads, urban infrastructure and commercial real estate. The consumption of cement in India is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.68% from 2016 to 2022.
India’s cement production for FY24 is expected to grow by 7-8% driven by infrastructure-led investment and mass residential projects.
The Indian cement sector's capacity is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4-5% over the four-year period up to the end of FY27. It would thus begin the 2028 financial year at 715-725 MT/ year in installed capacity.
Cement consumption is expected to reach 450.78 million tonnes by the end of FY27.
At present, the Installed capacity of cement in India is 570 MTPA with a production of 298 MTPA.
Cement production increased by 7.3% in February 2023 over February 2022. Its cumulative index increased by 9.7% during April-February, 2022-23 over the corresponding period of the previous year.
The Cement sector has received good investments and support from the Government in the recent past.
Real estate sector received the highest value of PE/VC investments in Q1 (January-March) of 2023 at US$5 billion, registering an year-over-year 123% growth.
In April 2023, the infrastructure and real estate asset class recorded US$ 3 billion in PE/VC investments, an 82% increase y-o-y and a 3% increase over March 2023.
In 2022, PE/VC investments in real estate and infrastructure stood at US$ 5.81 billion across 71 deals and US$ 7.9 billion across 47 deals respectively.
PE/VC investments in real estate and infrastructure witnessed a sharp growth of 27%, at US$ 13.7 billion in December 2022 as compared to US$ 10.7 billion in December 2021
FDI inflows in the industry, related to the manufacturing of cement and gypsum products, reached US$ 5.49 billion between April 2000-March 2023.
In June 2023, Shree Cement announced four planned capacity expansion projects that aim to increase its installed cement production capacity by 20% to 55.9 MT/year.
In June 2022, UltraTech Cement approved Rs. 12,886 crore (US$ 1.65 billion) capital expenditure to increase capacity by 22.6 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) through brownfield and greenfield projects.
PE/VC investments in real estate and infrastructure stood at US$ 338 million and US$ 795 million respectively in September 2022.
India's cement production was expected to range between 380-390 million tonnes in FY23, a growth rate of 8-9% year-on-year (yoy).
Cement production in India increased by 12.1% in September 2022 compared to September 2021.
Adani group will set up two new cement manufacturing plants, 15,000 MW of renewable power projects, and a data centre in Andhra Pradesh.
An MoU was signed between Star Cement Limited and the Government of Assam for an investment worth Rs. 1,400 crore (US$ 170.9 million) for setting up a Cement Grinding unit in Guwahati and another Cement Grinding unit in Cachar and AEC Block and other construction manufacturing units in Guwahati.
Ramco Cements is planning to invest a total of US$ 91.3 million towards growing its capacity FY24. Its planned investments consist of US$ 15.8 million in an expansion to its Haridaspur grinding plant in Odisha and US$ 75.5 million in the acquisition of land in Bommanalli, Karnataka, on which to establish a limestone mine.
Dalmia Cement (Bharat) is planning to invest US$ 560 million following the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Assam government on the construction of a new cement plant in the state.
In October 2022, UltraTech announced that it has been granted Environmental Product Declaration (EPD) certificates for four of its cement products, which are Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC), Portland Pozzolana Cement (PPC), Portland Slag Cement (PSC) and PCC (Portland Composite Cement).
As per the Union Budget 2022-23, there was a higher allocation for infrastructure to the tune of US$ 26.74 billion in roads and US$ 18.84 billion in railways is likely to boost demand for cement.
Under the housing for all segment, 8 million households will be identified according Rs. 48,000 crore (US$ 6.44 billion) set aside for PM Awas Yojana.
The government approved an outlay of Rs. 199,107 crore (US$ 26.74 billion) for the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, and this step is likely to boost the demand for cement.
Several government schemes such as MGNREGA, PM Garib Kalyan Rozgar Abhiyan and state-level schemes such as Matir Srisht (West Bengal) and public work schemes (Jharkhand) have aided demand
In October 2021, Prime Minister, Mr. Narendra Modi, launched the ‘PM Gati Shakti - National Master Plan (NMP)’ for multimodal connectivity. Gati Shakti will bring synergy to create a world-class, seamless multimodal transport network in India. This will boost the demand for cement in the future.
Growth in Infrastructure and real estate sector, post-COVID-19 pandemic, is likely to augment the demand for cement in 2022. The industry is likely to add an ~8 MTPA capacity in cement production.
India’s export of panel cement, clinkers, and asbestos cement products stood at US$ 682.32 million in FY23 while the imports were US$ 288.42 million.
As per DGCIS, India’s export of Portland cement, aluminous cement, slag cement, supersulphate cement and similar hydraulic cements stood at US$ 118.15 million in FY21. India exported cement to countries such as Sri Lanka, Nepal, the US, the UAE and Bangladesh.
The Government of India is strongly focused on infrastructure development to boost economic growth and is aiming for 100 smart cities. The Government also intends to expand the capacity of railways and the facilities for handling and storage to ease the transportation of cement and reduce transportation cost. These measures would lead to an increased construction activity, thereby boosting cement demand.
The future outlook of the cement sector looks on track with pandemic easing out.
In the next 10 years, India could become the main exporter of clinker and gray cement to the Middle East, Africa, and other developing nations of the world. Cement plants near the ports, for instance the plants in Gujarat and Visakhapatnam, will have an added advantage for export and will logistically be well armed to face stiff competition from cement plants in the interior of the country. India’s cement production capacity is expected to reach 550 MT by 2025. The cement demand in India is estimated to touch 419.92 MT by FY27 driven by the expanding demand of different sectors, i.e., housing, commercial construction, and industrial construction.
