The Evolution of Quick Commerce in India: A Sectoral Analysis

Indian retail has undergone a dramatic shift over the past few years. Not too long ago, urban Indians stocked up on groceries and daily essentials with weekly or monthly market trips. Today, many households, with a few taps on a smartphone can order groceries, medicines or snacks at their doorstep within minutes. This change has been driven by widespread internet and smartphone adoption in India. The COVID-19 pandemic provided a huge boost: lockdowns and social distancing sharply curtailed store visits, pushing consumers to try online shopping in masses. For example, one study by the Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad (IIM Ahmedabad) notes that online grocery purchases jumped 80% in 2020, to about Rs. 23,951 crore (US$ 2.7 billion), as shoppers shunned in-person shopping. At the same time, quick-commerce (Q-commerce) platforms emerged to satisfy newly urgent needs for instant delivery. By focusing on speed and convenience, these services cemented a new normal in retail: ordering everyday items via apps rather than making special trips.

Indian quick commerce has grown explosively. In 2022, the market was quite small, but just three years later, it reached several billion dollars in gross orders. According to India Briefing and Cornell SC Johnson reports, Q-commerce gross order value in India grew to about Rs. 65,645.40 crore (US$ 7.4 billion) by FY25, representing roughly a 24-fold increase from 2022. In practical terms, Q-commerce went from a niche experiment into a major retail channel very quickly. As per a report published by Bain & Company, Q-commerce orders made up about two-thirds of all online grocery orders in India in 2024, and roughly 10% of total e-retail spending. Q-commerce platforms have capitalised on the rapidly expanding e-commerce market, which itself is fuelled by rising incomes, affordable smartphones and easier online payments.

Several factors illustrate this growth trend. Q-commerce services now reach beyond metro cities into tier-2 and tier-3 towns, aided by better logistics and increasing internet penetration. Urban consumers report much higher adoption: before quick commerce, only about 33% of frequent shoppers preferred online channels for daily needs, but that number has soared to 87% as instant delivery became available. In other words, almost all city shoppers now use online services (including quick delivery) for regular items, a dramatic shift from even a few years ago. Moreover, quick commerce is not merely shifting sales among channels, it is increasing overall consumption. According to Bain & Company and Kearney analysis, among households using Q-commerce, 6-8% of their purchases are truly incremental demand (not just replacing what they bought elsewhere). In effect, the convenience of instant delivery is inducing people to buy additional items like snacks, premium groceries or urgent supplies that they might have skipped or delayed otherwise.

Employment and economic impact

Quick commerce’s impact on jobs and the economy is significant. These services create many new roles, especially in urban logistics. According to Kearney’s report, quick commerce employs roughly 62-64 people for every Rs. 100 crore (US$ 11.3 million) of monthly gross merchandise value (GMV). This is comparable to the employment intensity of general trade (about 63-66 jobs per Rs. 100 crore (US$ 11.3 million) GMV) and far higher than modern trade (around 42 jobs) or traditional e-commerce (about 27 jobs). In practice, this means a booming quick-commerce sector directly generates hundreds of thousands of jobs: warehouse pickers, packers, delivery drivers, as well as managerial, IT and marketing staff. For example, Zepto alone employed about 5,000 people by early 2024, and Blinkit had roughly 7,000 by 2023. Swiggy Instamart’s quick-commerce unit employed around 5,500 by 2024.

These figures only count full-time equivalents. Many quick-commerce jobs are gig-based or part-time: riders sign up on a platform and work flexible hours. According to Kearney’s report, quick commerce is ‘formalising’ aspects of the gig economy. It provides a steady gig work opportunity for delivery riders in cities and towns. Jobs are more evenly spread across urban and semi-urban areas (whereas general retail jobs are more rural). The high labour intensity also means that quick commerce helps absorb large pools of labour in logistics and customer service. Overall, analysts view the quick-commerce boom as an economic development indicator: its success signals rising incomes, strong consumer demand and an expanding service sector.

The sector also draws substantial investments and contributes to retail market expansion. Global retailers (such as Amazon and Walmart) are pouring money into ultra-fast delivery models to stay competitive, and foreign investors see quick-commerce success as a reason to invest money in India. This inflow of capital and technology is seen as beneficial for the wider economy.

Future outlook and sectoral expansion

India’s quick-commerce sector shows no signs of slowing. Analysts project continued rapid growth in the coming decade, as underlying drivers remain strong. A Cornell University study projects Q-commerce GMV in India could reach about Rs. 310,485.00 crore (US$ 35 billion) by 2030, up from roughly Rs. 62,984.10-65,645.40 crore (US$ 7.1-7.4 billion) in FY25. This implies sustained double- or even triple-digit growth rates for several years. Much of this growth hinges on further increases in internet and smartphone penetration: India’s online user base reached about 954 million by 2024 and is forecast to reach 500-600 million online shoppers by 2030, with total online consumer spending of about Rs. 3,81,45,300 crore (US$ 4.3 trillion). In other words, India is on track to become the world’s second-largest internet market, and its tens of millions of new users, especially in smaller towns, represent a vast untapped customer pool for Q-commerce.

Demographic and income shifts support this outlook. Industry reports note that by 2022, some 320 million Indians (around 23% of the population) were in mid- to high-income brackets, and more than 60% of households earned over Rs. 10,000 (US$ 112.73) per month. These shifts have expanded the middle class, strengthening demand for convenience-driven services. Analysts also highlight that the next ‘growth phase’ will come from tier-II and tier-III cities, where demand is rising and dark-store networks are beginning to spread. Supported by government programmes such as BharatNet (broadband expansion) and ONDC, smaller cities and semi-urban areas will likely contribute a much larger share of Q-commerce orders by the end of the decade.

Technology and innovation will further accelerate this expansion. Q-commerce players are continuously enhancing their fulfilment platforms with advanced tools. Companies employ AI-based demand forecasting, real-time inventory management and dynamic route optimisation to reduce waste and improve delivery speeds. Warehouse automation and micro-fulfilment centres are being piloted in several cities. In parallel, India’s payments ecosystem has created seamless ordering: the near-ubiquity of UPI and digital wallets enables instant transactions, even for small-value items, making low-friction online shopping accessible to a wider population.

Product diversification will also reshape the market. Originally dominated by groceries and personal-care essentials, many Q-commerce services now venture into non-food categories. Reports advise expanding beyond groceries to include electronics, health products and personal care. Players like Zepto have already built 40,000+ SKU catalogues across household goods and tech accessories, while Blinkit and Swiggy Instamart are experimenting with new verticals. Fast-moving consumer goods companies are also launching premium products first on Q-commerce sites where they know, high-frequency, convenience-focused shoppers are being captured. Impulse and gifted products, such as cosmetics, sweets and seasonal items are increasingly being adopted. This premiumisation phenomenon is likely to accelerate as an increasing number of consumers come to regard instant delivery as the norm rather than a novelty.

Sustainability and profitability remain dual priorities. With discounting now scaled back, companies are exploring new revenue streams including advertising, subscriptions, delivery surcharges and private-label product launches to improve margins. Industry reports show seller commissions already make up the bulk of platform revenues, but advertising and service fees are growing rapidly. Meanwhile, environmental considerations are gaining weight. Companies are piloting electric delivery vehicles and greener packaging, responding to consumer and regulatory concerns about emissions and waste. Analysts suggest that focusing on scale and operational efficiency, alongside sustainable practices, will be crucial for the long-term resilience of the sector.

Policy support is expected to play a major role in this evolution. The government’s Digital India initiatives have already widened access through digital payments and mobile internet. ONDC promises to bring millions of small kirana stores online, directly plugging them into the quick-commerce ecosystem. In the future, clearer labour norms for gig workers, potential incentives for electrification of delivery fleets and stricter consumer protection standards could all shape the sector’s growth. Far from stifling innovation, these regulatory frameworks may add stability and consumer trust, allowing Q-commerce to scale more sustainably.

From a global perspective, India’s trajectory is distinctive. By 2025, India’s quick commerce GMV (around Rs. 62,097.00-70,968.00 crore (US$ 7-8 billion)) will remain below China’s projected US$ 92.7 billion, but India has leapfrogged many Western markets in adoption. Currently, only about 4% of Indians, mostly urban consumers, use Q-commerce, compared to nearly one-quarter of Chinese consumers. This gap illustrates India’s growth potential. At the same time, India’s model is being studied abroad. Platforms in Türkiye (Getir), Colombia (Rappi) and Indonesia (Gojek) have borrowed from India’s playbook, while global giants such as Amazon and Walmart have accelerated their ultra-fast delivery pilots after seeing India’s success. In effect, India is pioneering retail innovation under infrastructure and policy constraints that mirror many other developing economies.

Overall, the outlook for India’s Q-commerce industry is bullish. Other non-food categories have already been tested and are likely to go mainstream on quick-commerce platforms, such as pharma, electronics accessories and small appliances. Given increasing connectivity and incomes, the sector could eventually grow to represent 5-10% of all retail sales in India, a sizeable increase from today’s 1-2%. Most signs indicate that Q-commerce will keep scaling quickly, creating more tech jobs, improving consumer convenience and developing entirely new business models, even amid profitability and sustainability challenges. Its future will depend on increasing reach into India’s heartland and enhancing its economics, but with its momentum and experimentation, it looks set to be a major influence in shaping India’s retail future.

Conclusion

India’s quick-commerce sector has come a long way in a short time, from a curious newcomer to a mainstream retail channel. The narrative is one of technological empowerment meeting changing consumer habits. It combines the nostalgia of traditional home deliveries with the excitement of modern app-based services. It is transforming not just shopping but also labour markets, supply chains and even global retail strategies.

While questions remain about its long-term profitability and sustainability, the broad impact is largely positive: it offers unprecedented convenience to consumers, new revenue opportunities to businesses and jobs to workers. Going forward, quick commerce is expected to coexist with other channels, rather than replace them. It will continue adapting; for example, extending beyond groceries to small electronics and household goods. India’s experience suggests that the future of retail will be omnichannel and instant. In that future, India is likely to keep leading the charge, having shown how a developing economy can reshape global retail trends.