Indian Automobile Industry Analysis

The automobile industry in India is the world’s fifth largest. India was the world's fifth largest manufacturer of cars and seventh largest manufacturer of commercial vehicles in 2019. Indian automotive industry (including component manufacturing) is expected to reach Rs. 16.16-18.18 trillion (US$ 251.4-282.8 billion) by 2026. The industry attracted Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) worth US$ 25.40 billion between April 2000 and December 2020 accounting for ~5% of the total FDI during the period according to the data released by Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT).

The Indian automotive industry is expected to reach US$ 300 billion by 2026.

Domestic automobile production increased at 2.36% CAGR between FY16-FY20 with 26.36 million vehicles being manufactured in the country in FY20. Overall, domestic automobiles sales increased at 1.29% CAGR between FY16-FY20 with 21.55 million vehicles being sold in FY20.

Two wheelers and passenger vehicles dominate the domestic Indian auto market. Passenger car sales are dominated by small and mid-sized cars. Two wheelers and passenger cars accounted for 80.8% and 12.9% market share, respectively, accounting for a combined sale of over 20.1 million vehicles in FY20. Two­-wheeler sales stood at 1,195,445 units in March 2021, compared with 1,846,613 units in March 2020, recording a decline of 35.26 %.

Passenger vehicle (PV) sales stood at 279,745 units in March 2021, compared with 2,17,879 units in March 2020, registering a growth of 28.39%.

Overall, automobile export reached 4.77 million vehicles in FY20, growing at a CAGR of 6.94% during FY16-FY20. Two wheelers made up 73.9% of the vehicles exported, followed by passenger vehicles at 14.2%, three wheelers at 10.5% and commercial vehicles at 1.3%.

The electric vehicle (EV) market is estimated to be a Rs. 50,000 crore (US$ 7.09 billion) opportunity in India by 2025. Several technology and automotive companies have expressed interest and/or made investments into the India EV space. Auto companies such as Hyundai, MG Motors, Mercedes, and Tata Motors, have launched EVs in the market. A recent study conducted by Castrol found out, most of Indian consumers would consider buying an electric vehicle by the year 2022. The study also highlighted for an average Indian consumer, price point of Rs. 23 lakh (or US$ 31,000), a charge time of 35 minutes and a range of 401 kilometers from a single charge will be the 'tipping points' to get mainstream EV adoption. A cumulative investment of ~Rs. 12.5 trillion (US$180 billion) in vehicle production and charging infrastructure would be required until 2030 to meet India’s electric vehicle (EV) ambitions.

A report by India Energy Storage Alliance estimated that EV market in India is likely to increase at a CAGR of 36% until 2026. In addition, projection for EV battery market is forecast to expand at a CAGR of 30% during the same period.

The Government aims to develop India as a global manufacturing and research and development (R&D) hub. It has set up National Automotive Testing and R&D Infrastructure Project (NATRiP) centres as well as National Automotive Board to act as facilitator between the Government and the industry. Under (NATRiP), five testing and research centres have been established in the country since 2015. NATRiP’s proposal for “Grant-In-Aid for test facility infrastructure for Electric Vehicle (EV) performance Certification from NATRIP Implementation Society” under FAME (Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid) and Electric Vehicles in India) scheme was approved by Project Implementation and Sanctioning Committee (PISC) on January 03, 2019. In Union Budget 2021-22, the government introduced the voluntary vehicle scrappage policy, which is likely to boost demand for new vehicles after removing old unfit vehicles currently plying on the Indian roads.

The Indian Government has also set up an ambitious target of having only EVs being sold in the country. The Ministry of Heavy Industries, Government of India, has shortlisted 11 cities in the country for introduction of EVs in their public transport system under the FAME scheme. The first phase of the scheme was extended to March 2019 while in February 2019, the Government approved FAME-II scheme with a fund requirement of Rs. 10,000 crore (US$ 1.39 billion) for FY20-22. Under Union Budget 2019-20, Government announced to provide additional income tax deduction of Rs. 1.5 lakh (US$ 2,146) on the interest paid on the loans taken to purchase EVs.  

EV sales, excluding e-rickshaws, in India witnessed a growth of 20% and reached 1.56 lakh units in FY20 driven by two wheelers. According to NITI Aayog and Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) India's EV finance industry is likely to reach Rs. 3.7 lakh crore (US$ 50 billion) in 2030.

The Government of India expects automobile sector to attract US$ 8-10 billion in local and foreign investment by 2023.