Indian Real Estate Industry Analysis

In India, the real estate sector is the second-highest employment generator, after the agriculture sector. Real estate sector in India is expected to reach US$ 1 trillion by 2030. By 2025, it will contribute 13% to country’s GDP. Emergence of nuclear families, rapid urbanisation and rising household income are likely to remain the key drivers for growth in all spheres of real estate, including residential, commercial, and retail. Rapid urbanisation in the country is pushing the growth of real estate. >70-75% of India’s GDP will be contributed by urban areas by 2020. According to India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra), the Indian real estate sector may stage a sharp K-shaped recovery in FY22. However, the overall sales in FY22 could still be ~14% below the FY20 levels.

India's Global Real Estate Transparency Index ranking improved by a notch to 34 in 2019 on the back of regulatory reforms, better market data and green initiatives according to property consultant JLL.

Indian real estate attracted U$ 5 billion institutional investments in 2020, equivalent to 93% of transactions recorded in the previous year. Investments from private equity (PE) players and VC funds reached US$ 4.06 billion in 2020.

The office market in top eight cities recorded transactions of 22.2 msf from July 2020 to December 2020, whereas new completions were recorded at 17.2 msf in the same period. In terms of share of sectoral occupiers, Information Technology (IT/ITeS) sector dominated with a 41% share in second half of 2020, followed by BSFI and Manufacturing sectors with 16% each, while Other Services and Co-working sectors recorded 17% and 10%, respectively. The office space leasing activity is expected to pick up in 2021 and is likely to be at par with the 10-year average, i.e., 30-31 million sq. ft. Of the total PE investments in real estate in Q4 FY21, the office segment attracted 71% share, followed by retail at 15% and residential and warehousing with 7% each. According to a JLL Report, Delhi-NCR witnessed a 5% increase in net absorption of office space in the first quarter of FY20 on a QoQ basis with 1.07 million sq. ft. India's flexible space stock is likely to expand by 10-15% YoY, from the current 36 million sq. ft., in the next three years, according to a report by CBRE.

Home sales volume across eight major cities in India jumped by 2x to 61,593 units from October 2020 to December 2020, compared with 33,403 units in the previous quarter, signifying healthy recovery post the strict lockdown imposed in the second quarter due to the spread of COVID-19 in the country. According to Anarock, housing sales in seven cities increased by 29% and new launches by 51% in Q4 FY21 over Q4 FY20.

Demand for residential real estate revived in Q4 FY21 as homebuyers took advantage of low mortgage rates and incentives rendered by developers. Residential sales in this quarter recovered to >90% volumes recorded in 2020 across the top seven cities.

In the top seven cities, housing sales increased by 29% and new launches by 51% in the fourth quarter of FY21. Delhi-NCR, Mumbai, Bengaluru and Pune together accounted for 83% sales in the same quarter. The performance of micro-markets in the Delhi-NCR region, including Noida and Gurgaon, posted a double-digit expansion in property appreciation prices with 11% and 13%, respectively, growth.

According to the Economic Times Housing Finance Summit, about 3 houses are built per 1,000 people per year compared with the required construction rate of five houses per 1,000 population. The current shortage of housing in urban areas is estimated to be ~10 million units. An additional 25 million units of affordable housing are required by 2030 to meet the growth in the country’s urban population.

The Government of India has been supportive towards the real estate sector. In August 2015, the Union Cabinet approved 100 Smart City Projects in India. The Government has also raised FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) limits for townships and settlements development projects to 100%. Real estate projects within Special Economic Zones (SEZ) are also permitted for 100% FDI. Construction is the third-largest sector in terms of FDI inflow. FDI in the sector (including construction development and construction activities) stood at US$ 42.97 billion between April 2000 and September 2020. Exports from SEZs reached Rs. 7.96 lakh crore (US$ 113.0 billion) in FY20 and grew ~13.6% from Rs. 7.1 lakh crore (US$ 100.3 billion) in FY19. Indian real estate is expected to attract a substantial amount of FDI in the next two years with US$ 8 billion capital infusion by FY22.

Government of India’s Housing for All initiative is expected to bring US$ 1.3 trillion investments in the housing sector by 2025. As of December 2019, under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (Urban) [PMAY (U)], 1.12 crore houses were sanctioned in urban areas, with a potential to create 1.20 crore jobs. The scheme is expected to push affordable housing and construction in the country and give a boost to the real estate sector. On July 09, 2020, Union Cabinet approved the development of Affordable Rental Housing Complexes (AHRCs) for urban migrants and poor as a sub-scheme under PMAY–U.

Government has also released draft guidelines for investment by Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in non-residential segment.

The Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs has recommended all the states to consider reducing stamp duty of property transactions in a bid to push real estate activity, generate more revenue and aid economic growth.