Trade Analytics
Retail
By 2018, the Indian retail sector is likely to grow at a CAGR of 13 per cent to reach US$ 950 billion.

Retail Industry in India

Latest update: January, 2018

 

 

  • Increasing participation from foreign and private players to boost retail infrastructure
  • Revenue generated from online retail is projected to grow to US$ 60 billion by 2020.

 

 

 

Source: indiaretailing.com

 

 

  • Rising number of tier-2 and tier-3 cities to enhance supermarket space in the country
  • Supermarkets to total 8,500 by 2016 from 500 in 2006

 

 

 

Source: indiaretailing.com

 

Last Updated: February, 2018

SECTORAL REPORT | January, 2018

Introduction

The Indian retail industry has emerged as one of the most dynamic and fast-paced industries due to the entry of several new players. It accounts for over 10 per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and around 8 per cent of the employment. India is the world’s fifth-largest global destination in the retail space.

Indian Retail Industry has immense potential as India has the second largest population with affluent middle class, rapid urbanisation and solid growth of internet.

Market Size

India’s retail market is expected to increase by 60 per cent to reach US$ 1.1 trillion by 2020, on the back of factors like rising incomes and lifestyle changes by middle class and increased digital connectivity. While the overall retail market is expected to grow at 12 per cent per annum, modern trade would expand twice as fast at 20 per cent per annum and traditional trade at 10 per cent#. Indian retail market is divided into “Organised Retail Market” which is valued at $60 billion which is only 9 per cent of the total sector and “Unorganised Retail Market constitutes the rest 91 per cent of the sector.

India’s Business to Business (B2B) e-commerce market is expected to reach US$ 700 billion by 2020.## Online retail is expected to be at par with the physical stores in the next five years and has grown 23 per cent to $17.8 billion in 2017.

India’s total potential of Business to Consumer (B2C) is estimated to be US$ 26 billion, of which $3 billion can be achieved in the next three years from 16 product categories, according to a study by Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) and Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT).

India has replaced China as the most promising markets for retail expansion, supported by expanding economy, coupled with booming consumption rates, urbanizing population and growing middle class.

India is expected to become the world’s fastest growing e-commerce market, driven by robust investment in the sector and rapid increase in the number of internet users. Various agencies have high expectations about growth of Indian e-commerce markets. Indian e-commerce sales are expected to reach US$ 120 billion! by 2020 from US$ 30 billion in FY2016.Further, India's e-commerce market is expected to reach US$ 220 billion in terms of gross merchandise value (GMV) and 530 million shoppers by 2025, led by faster speeds on reliable telecom networks, faster adoption of online services and better variety as well as convenience@.

India’s direct selling industry is expected to reach Rs 159.3 billion (US$ 2.5 billion) by 2021, if provided with a conducive environment through reforms and regulation.

Indian exports of locally made retail and lifestyle products grew at a CAGR of 10 per cent from 2013 to 2016.*

The size of modern retail in India is expected to double to Rs 171,800 crore (US$ 25.7 billion) from Rs 87,100 crore (US$ 13 billion) in three years driven by omni-channel retail. **

Investment Scenario

The Indian retail trading has received Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) equity inflows totalling US$1.09 billion during April 2000–September 2017, according to the Department of Industrial Policies and Promotion (DIPP).

With the rising need for consumer goods in different sectors including consumer electronics and home appliances, many companies have invested in the Indian retail space in the past few months.

  • Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) approved three foreign direct investments (FDI), Mountain Trail Food, Kohler India Corporation, and Merlin Entertainments India in the single brand retail sector and two FDI proposals of over Rs 400 crore (US$ 62.45 million) within the retail sector.  
  • With 2017 being a successful year for herbal-ayurvedic brands, new Indian organic labels in hair care, cosmetics, food and apparel are belting up to carve an organic niche in the growing herbal segment.
  • Investments by private equity firms in Indian retail sector reached US$ 200 million in the first half of 2017, with seven new global brands entering India during the period.

Government Initiatives

The Government of India has taken various initiatives to improve the retail industry in India. Some of them are listed below:

  • The Government of India may change the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) rules in food processing, in a bid to permit e-commerce companies and foreign retailers to sell Made in India consumer products.
  • Government of India has allowed 100 per cent Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in online retail of goods and services through the automatic route, thereby providing clarity on the existing businesses of e-commerce companies operating in India.

Road Ahead

E-commerce is expanding steadily in the country. Customers have the ever increasing choice of products at the lowest rates. E-commerce is probably creating the biggest revolution in the retail industry, and this trend would continue in the years to come. Retailers should leverage the digital retail channels (e-commerce), which would enable them to spend less money on real estate while reaching out to more customers in tier-2 and tier-3 cities.

Both organised and unorganised retail companies have to work together to ensure better prospects for the overall retail industry, while generating new benefits for their customers.

Nevertheless, the long-term outlook for the industry is positive, supported by rising incomes, favourable demographics, entry of foreign players, and increasing urbanisation.

Exchange Rate Used: INR 1 = US$ 0.015 as on January 4, 2018.

References: Media Reports, Press Releases, Deloitte report, Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion website, Union Budget 2017–18

Note: ! - according to a joint ASSOCHAM-Forrester study paper, @ - as per Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofA-ML) report., # - as per a report titled ‘Retail 2020: Retrospect, Reinvent, Rewrite’ by The Boston Consulting Group and Retailers Association of India, ## - as per Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India LLP, * - as per Damco, ** - as per a joint report from Knight Frank India and Retailers Association of India (RAI), ^^ - according to a report by CBRE South Asia Pvt Ltd.

Disclaimer: This information has been collected through secondary research and IBEF is not responsible for any errors in the same.

Retail India

Market size over the past few years (US$ billion)
Retail India

 

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